What Do Derivatives Market Signals Reveal About AVAX's Future Price?

AVAX futures open interest surges 15% to $835 million, signaling bullish sentiment

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant development as AVAX futures open interest surged by 15% to reach $835 million, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among traders. This substantial increase in open interest suggests growing confidence in Avalanche's future prospects. To put this in perspective, let's compare the current open interest with previous data:

This remarkable growth in open interest coincides with AVAX's recent price performance. As of October 17, 2025, AVAX is trading at $19.49, showing a 24-hour change of -12.25%. Despite the short-term price correction, the surge in futures open interest indicates that traders are positioning themselves for potential long-term gains.

Analysts are optimistic about AVAX's future, with some predicting a price target of $50. This bullish outlook is supported by Avalanche's robust technology and growing ecosystem. The platform's ability to launch decentralized applications, financial primitives, and interoperable blockchains has attracted significant attention from investors and developers alike.

The surge in futures open interest also reflects the broader market's interest in layer-1 blockchain solutions. As the demand for scalable and efficient blockchain platforms continues to grow, Avalanche's position as a leading smart contract platform could drive further adoption and price appreciation in the coming months.

Funding rates turn negative as short positions increase, indicating growing bearish pressure

Recent market data for AVAX reveals a concerning trend as funding rates have turned negative and short positions are on the rise. This shift in market sentiment indicates growing bearish pressure on the asset. To illustrate the severity of the situation, let's examine the price trends over different time periods:

The data clearly shows a consistent downward trajectory across all time frames, with particularly steep declines over the past week and month. This bearish sentiment is further corroborated by the market emotion index, which currently stands at 51.33% negative sentiment compared to 48.67% positive sentiment. The combination of negative funding rates, increasing short positions, and declining prices suggests that traders are becoming increasingly pessimistic about AVAX's near-term prospects. As a result, the asset's price has fallen below the critical $24 support level, closing at $19.49 as of the latest update on October 17, 2025.

Price rebounds to $29.28 but remains below key moving averages, suggesting mixed market signals

AVAX's recent price action has been a rollercoaster ride for investors, with the token rebounding to $29.28 after a sharp decline. However, this recovery falls short of key moving averages, painting a complex picture of market sentiment. The token's performance can be better understood through a comparative analysis:

Despite the recent uptick, AVAX remains 6.8% below its 20-day moving average, indicating lingering bearish pressure in the short term. However, the token has managed to maintain its position above the crucial 50-day moving average, suggesting underlying support from long-term investors. This technical consolidation phase is further evidenced by the token's trading range, with key support holding at $27.07 and resistance at $30.60. The absence of significant negative news has allowed technical factors to drive price action, with market participants closely watching for a decisive break of this range to establish clear directional momentum.