Goldman Sachs prévoit-il que l’émission de dettes américaines va privilégier les échéances à court terme ?

【Crypto World】Goldman Sachs, via William Marshall and Bill Zu, recently provided an interesting assessment — if the U.S. Treasury were to increase its debt issuance, it would likely favor shorter-term instruments.

Specifically, they believe that the auctions for medium-term Treasury bonds with maturities of 2, 3, 5, and 7 years will continue to rise, with the increase in floating-rate notes being relatively moderate. As for long-term bonds such as 10, 20, and 30 years? They expect these to remain largely unchanged, with no significant issuance increase. This adjustment is expected to commence from November 2026.

As a result, the weighted average maturity (WAM) will likely decrease, and the proportion of short-term debt will steadily increase. However, they also mentioned a variable — the Federal Reserve might absorb about half of the net increase in short-term Treasury debt over the next two years, so the circulating proportion of short-term debt in the market may not change significantly.

For us, this debt structure adjustment, reflecting liquidity expectations and interest rate trends, is still worth paying close attention to.