#以太坊行情技术解读 The Bank of Japan meeting is imminent: the crypto market may face a big wave

Focus: $ETH、$SOL、$BTC

Market has already digested some of the news, but leverage positions risks are not fully released. Before the meeting on December 19, don’t rush to increase your position blindly.

According to authoritative sources, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo has already signaled—this meeting will carefully evaluate whether to raise interest rates. The market currently prices the probability of a rate hike at over 80%, but the real suspense lies in these points:

· Normal expectation: raise by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75% (the highest since 1995)
· If inflation exceeds expectations: could directly implement an aggressive 0.5 percentage point hike
· Alternatively: the central bank might unexpectedly hold steady, triggering a short squeeze rebound

The blood business of the yen is collapsing

Thirty years of ultra-low interest rate policy has created the world's largest arbitrage trade—borrowing yen at nearly zero cost and then investing in high-yield assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The data is quite shocking:

· July 2024 rate hike: Bitcoin plummeted 23% in a single day, and over $20 billion was liquidated across the network on the same day
· The current situation: monitoring data from exchanges shows nearly $1 billion in leverage positions hanging by a thread, ready to be liquidated

Will history repeat this time? The probability is actually not that high:

· Change in information symmetry: this time, the market started digesting the rate hike expectation three months in advance, unlike July last year when it was caught off guard
· Leverage has shrunk: exchange data shows that compared to the peak in 2024, open interest has decreased by nearly 40%
· Fed’s backing: the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates next year, providing a floor for USD liquidity

Risk checklist before December 19

For leverage traders: reduce contract multiples to below 3x, and reserve 150% margin buffer

For spot holders: set two stop-loss levels for BTC—85,000 and 80,000

For those waiting for the wind: prepare USDT bullets, once the rate hike hits, if BTC drops below 82,000, start accumulating in batches

Vulnerabilities ranking of cryptocurrencies: BTC is at high risk (institutional positions concentrated), ETH faces very high risk (DeFi lending pressure largest), SOL is medium-high risk (Asian funds favor support), key support levels are 85,000, 2600, 180 respectively.

How big will the impact of a collapse in arbitrage be? Real Vision’s chief analyst once said something very piercing: Yen arbitrage is the world’s largest macro leverage position, and once closed, it will impact the stock market, bond market, and crypto market simultaneously. But this time, the situation is indeed different from last year.