The Federal Reserve moved, but Bitcoin didn't rise much. A 25 basis point rate cut, the market had already digested it quite well, and when it was officially announced, the price actually moved downward. Many people took this opportunity to sell, especially those new investors who entered through spot ETFs. For the first time experiencing a bear market, they were a bit confused, watching the price not rise and quickly taking profits or cutting losses.

Industry analyst Terpin offered an interesting perspective: Bitcoin, for most of its history, actually has little to do with the stock market. The recent increase in correlation over the past few years is mainly because liquidity was overly abundant two years ago, making it perform like tech stocks.

The key issue actually lies in the cycle differences. Bitcoin follows a relatively stable four-year cycle, but the stock market’s long cycle is often around ten years. The two rhythms are different, so their performances naturally don’t synchronize. Plus, now the market is beginning to expect an economic slowdown and is still worried about long-term risks like a potential inflation rebound in 2026. Capital sentiment has become more cautious, and no one really wants to gamble on highly volatile assets anymore. That’s why the rate cut has instead become a signal of fleeing.