Latest shorting advice for FIL:

The probability of "retracting a segment of the increase" within 24 hours is relatively high, but the risk of continuing the upward trend or a second short squeeze is also significant. For the interval plan, try to only engage in shorting after a "weakening signal" appears, to avoid directly facing the rocket.

Key level
• Resistance: 3.50–3.55 (first resistance); 3.75–3.85 (high position range); 4.00 (round number / upper liquidity)
• Support: 3.20–3.25 (retest level after significant volume increase); 3.00 (strong psychological level/watershed); 2.85; 2.60–2.70 (upper boundary of previous range)

Two Safer Entry Methods

A. Shorting the rebound (exhausting at highs)
• Target Position: 3.45–3.55 Shorting in batches (position ≤30%), increase to 50% if there is a 15m/1h level volume spike with upper shadow or if it breaks below the previous rebound low.
• Risk Control: Hard stop loss above 3.82 (or exit if 1h close is above 3.55).
• Targets: TP1 3.20; TP2 3.00; TP3 2.85. Lock in half at 3.20, move stop loss above cost.

B. Breakout pullback shorting (confirm weakness) ← more stable
• Trigger: Effective break below and retracement without standing back at 3.00 (closing below 3.00 on 1h).
• Entry: Shorting near 3.00 if it does not break on the pullback (position 50–70%).
• Stop loss: Above 3.15.
• Target: TP1 2.85; TP2 2.70; extend view 2.60.

If the rebound continues, how to add positions/what to do
• Only add a small position once a clear false breakout (long upper shadow/quick pullback) occurs in the 3.75–3.85 range; in other cases, do not "add more as it rises."
• If any 1h closes above 3.55 and retraces without breaking it, it is considered a continuation of the bullish trend. Short positions should reduce their holdings or stop-loss, and wait for the second short squeeze signal between 3.85–4.00 for reassessment.

Position and Leverage
• The volatility after this type of vertical surge is very high, so it is not recommended to use 50x. Keeping it to 10–20x is more survivable.
• Keep a single loss within 1-2% of the account equity. Reverse the position size based on your stop-loss width, rather than setting the leverage first.
• After triggering TP1, raise the stop-loss above the entry point (break even/small profit) to avoid emotional pullbacks eating into floating profits.

Trading Checklist
1. Observe if the 15m/1h has formed a Lower High or if it has broken below the previous key retracement level; do not short if there is no sign of weakness.
2. Pay attention to funding rates/open interest: If the rate turns positive and OI rises, it indicates a crowded long position, increasing the success rate of shorting during a rebound; if the rate is negative and OI declines, be cautious with shorting and wait for a breakout.
3. Only add to the position once; move the stop loss after reaching TP1; reduce by half at TP2, and let the remaining profit run.

Rough probability judgment (for reference only): Within the 24 hours after the current +60% surge, the probability of a pullback to the 3.00–3.20 range is about 55–60%; the probability of a direct continuation and hitting 3.75–4.00 is about 40–45%. Therefore, "breaking and retesting for shorting" is more stable, while "selling on strength exhaustion" should strictly observe the pattern and use a small position. 🔥🔥🔥
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