Recently, it has become noticeably clear that liquidity on the SOL chain is gradually warming up. The day before yesterday, PEPE's original artist released a new work, and subconsciously I thought about buying the Ethereum mainnet version. Unexpectedly, the same version on the SOL chain directly surged to a market cap of 3 million, while the Ethereum mainnet version was still hovering around 400,000—this comparison reveals the issue.

Over the past two weeks of monitoring the SOL chain, the most profound feeling is that the distribution of market caps among tokens follows a clear pattern. As long as a project has some potential, its market cap generally stays between 1 million and 3 million. If there is a whale manipulating behind the scenes, it might break through to around 10 million at most. It’s not that it can’t rise, but the key problem is that the capital backing is too weak. When the price is pushed upward, it becomes very difficult—fundamentally, it’s due to insufficient liquidity. Whales are well aware of this; if they try to force it up, everyone can run away and cut losses, which would result in their own significant losses. Who would do that? On the other hand, compared to November, the situation has already improved by quite a bit. With foreign markets still on holiday these days, once they return, the market might see a new turning point.

Another phenomenon worth noting is that large-cap tokens often need to go through a shakeout. The reason Snowball can reach a market cap of 10 million is because it was heavily shaken out early on, allowing it to rise smoothly afterward. Looking at it this way, it’s not surprising that PUMPV2 can only reach this height now—it has a heavy base, and the chips are scattered to death. So if you miss the top and bottom, being stuck at the peak is a truly tough experience. Tokens that rely on mechanism innovation and narrative hype usually can’t compete with pure MEME coins; their staying power is far inferior.