Buy Crypto
Pay with
USD
USD
Buy & Sell
Hot
Supports Visa, Mastercard, SEPA & more
P2P
0 Fees
Flexible trading, zero fees
Gate Card
Use your crypto for payments worldwide
Markets
Trade
Basic
Advanced
Futures
Futures
Access hundreds of perpetual contracts
CFD
Gold
One platform for global traditional assets
Options
Hot
Trade European-style vanilla options
Unified Account
Maximize your capital efficiency
Demo Trading
Introduction to Futures Trading
Learn the basics of futures trading
Futures Events
Join events to earn rewards
Demo Trading
Use virtual funds to practice risk-free trading
Stocks
CFD
Stock CFD Derivatives
US Stocks
Access real US stocks and ETFs
HK Stocks
Trade quality Hong Kong-listed stocks
Korean Stocks
SK Hynix
Real Korean stocks and top assets
Stock Futures
High leverage, 24/7 trading
Tokenized Stocks
Backed by real stock assets
IPO Access
Unlock full access to global stock IPOs
GUSD
3.8%
Mint GUSD for Treasury RWA yields
Stocks Activities
Trade Popular Stocks and Unlock Generous Airdrops
Earn
Launch
CandyDrop
tag
Collect candies to earn airdrops
Launchpool
Quick staking, earn potential new tokens
HODLer Airdrop
Hold GT and get massive airdrops for free
IPO Access
Unlock full access to global stock IPOs
Alpha Points
Trade on-chain assets and earn airdrops
Futures Points
Earn futures points and claim airdrop rewards
Investment
Square
Square
Post, share, and explore crypto trends
Live
moments live
Live crypto market analysis
Chat
Chat with crypto traders
News
What is happening in crypto
Gate Learn
Crypto guides and educational resources
Gate Blog
Crypto insights and industry updates
Gate Research
In-depth research and market analysis
flower_head
More
Promotions
AI
Others
TradFi（新）
Gate Card
Rewards
Square
Latest
Hot
News
Profile
Jens

FOMC tomorrow.



→ 72% chance the Fed maintains rates.
→ 29% chance of a hike.
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 11
  • 2
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
LiquidationHunter
· 1h ago
72% and 29% add up to 101%, so this data must be wrong.
View OriginalReply0
HashRateHero
· 2h ago
FOMC meetings have long been a turning point for the market. This time, keeping rates unchanged is likely, but what will truly move the market is the guidance on the future path. Based on the current data, inflation is still above the target, and employment remains strong—so theoretically, further rate hikes are needed. But pressure in the banking sector makes the Fed hesitate. So one possible outcome is: keep rates unchanged, but the statement turns hawkish, stressing that more rate hikes are still required. How will the market react? It may rise first and then fall. Another possibility is: an unexpected no rate hike but a dovish stance, with the market rallying sharply. However, the probability is very low. In any case, tomorrow is not a good time to bet on a direction; it’s recommended to stay in cash or use straddle options.
View OriginalReply0
CrossChainMessenger
· 2h ago
Volatility is expected to rise, making it suitable for options strategies.
View OriginalReply0
NoiseFilter
· 2h ago
In fact, there are also disagreements within the Federal Reserve. Recent remarks show that some commissioners are inclined to keep raising interest rates, while others are worried about a banking crisis. Tomorrow’s statement may reconcile these views, leading to ambiguous wording that the market can’t easily interpret. So volatility could be higher than expected.
View OriginalReply0
NewsHarvester
· 2h ago
The crypto market is relatively less affected by the FOMC than US equities, but volatility may also amplify. If the Federal Reserve turns hawkish and the US dollar strengthens, Bitcoin could come under pressure. If it turns dovish, capital may flow into risk assets. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around 28,000 and is waiting for a direction. For the short term, it’s advisable to stay on the sidelines.
View OriginalReply0
TimeZoneTrader
· 2h ago
The market has already priced in the decision to keep interest rates unchanged; the focus is on the dot plot.
View OriginalReply0
SocialEngineerWatcher
· 2h ago
Note that the 72% probability in the CME FedWatch tool is based on the implied interest rates from federal funds futures. But this probability fluctuates every day; it will be updated before tomorrow morning’s market open. Also, could the 1% difference be due to rounding? But 29% + 72% = 101% is clearly wrong—the actual should be 71% and 29%, or 72% and 28%. This kind of basic mistake makes one question the reliability of the data. However, market participants often overlook small errors like this and focus more on actual outcomes. Tomorrow’s Asian session may react in advance, but the final say still lies with Powell. For day traders, it’s recommended to watch the 2:00 a.m. statement and the 2:30 a.m. press conference release in Beijing time on the next day.
View OriginalReply0
TrendlineStitcher
· 2h ago
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 faces resistance around 4,200, and if the FOMC turns hawkish, it may break through support. Bitcoin’s correlation with US equities has also strengthened, and it faces similar risks. Investors are advised to reduce leverage and manage with a light position. If the decision is dovish, it may break through the previous high.
View OriginalReply0
Div_Hunter
· 2h ago
The probability of a 29% rate hike is actually not low—it’s worth hedging.
View OriginalReply0
MemeCalendar
· 2h ago
Historical data shows that after an interest rate decision, the market usually falls first and then rises.
View OriginalReply0
View More

  • Pinned

Sitemap