Что раскрывает рынок опционов на биткойн? Почему трейдеры вновь обращают внимание на уровень 100 000 долларов

【Chain Article】Recent trader actions have revealed an interesting signal: they have refocused their attention on Bitcoin’s round number of $100,000.

From options market data, there are indeed some interesting observations. According to Deribit statistics, Bitcoin call option contracts expiring on January 30 with a strike price of $100,000 have reached peak open interest. This scale is more than twice the notional value of the second most popular contract (put options with $80,000 strike price expiring on the same date). The numbers don’t sound particularly large, but there’s a key point—the direction is very consistent.

Jake Ostrovskis, OTC trading head at Wintermute, noticed that this one-sided bet is formed on the basis of large positions from last week. His assessment is that although put premium still exists in the current curve, it has significantly diminished. In other words, the market has finally stopped assuming the most pessimistic downside scenario will continue, and the situation has stabilized slightly.

Satraj Bambra, CEO of Rails, presented a more concrete technical perspective. He believes retesting the $100,000 to $106,000 range is quite likely—a move very common in bearish structures. But to truly turn bullish? Bitcoin needs to recover and firmly hold $106,000 on the weekly chart before it qualifies to challenge all-time highs again.

In summary, trader actions reflect a subtle shift in market sentiment: pessimism is fading, but caution remains. $100,000 is not just a number; it carries market expectations for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the second half of 2025.