XRP Price Prediction: $2.60 Crucial Battle, Momentum Declining May Fall Towards $2

XRP price is currently trading at about $2.55, up 1.7% intraday, with a volume exceeding $2.16 billion. Despite the rebound, XRP remains capped below the strong resistance level around $2.60. XRP's market capitalization reaches $153 billion, maintaining its position as the fourth largest Crypto Asset, but as the market structure tightens, momentum is gradually weakening, and the daily chart is showing a descending triangle pattern.

Descending Triangle Top 2.60 Resistance Becomes Key

(Source: Trading View)

The daily chart of XRP shows a descending triangle pattern, which usually indicates that the price will continue to decline after the support level is lost. The upward trend line connecting the lower highs since 3.15 USD continues to limit the upward momentum, while the support level around 2.54 USD constitutes the last line of defense for the bulls. This technical pattern is significant in XRP price forecasting, as it clearly depicts the power dynamics between the bulls and bears.

The characteristic of a descending triangle is that the price highs continuously decrease while the lows remain at a relatively stable support level. This pattern indicates that selling pressure is gradually increasing, with each rebound reaching a lower height, while buyers remain firm near the support level. When this formation develops to its extreme, it typically ends with a downward breakout of the support level, triggering an accelerated decline. However, there is also a possibility of a false breakout to the upside; if buyers suddenly emerge with strong force, they may break the descending trend line and transition to an uptrend.

Although the recent price has seen a rebound, the trading price of XRP remains below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that sellers still dominate short-term market sentiment. The 50-day EMA is an important watershed for the mid-term trend, and when the price is below the moving average, it usually means that the downtrend is still continuing. Only when the price re-establishes and stabilizes above the 50-day EMA can a short-term trend reversal be confirmed.

The resistance level at 2.60 dollars is so critical because it is not only the position of the upward trend line of the descending triangle but also a psychological barrier that has been tested multiple times without effective breakthrough. From the distribution of volume, there is a large historical transaction record near 2.60 dollars, indicating that many investors' stop-loss and take-profit orders are concentrated in this range. Breaking through this resistance level requires not only buying power but also the confirmation of volume.

RSI bearish divergence indicates weakening buying power

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is consolidating around 48, indicating neutral momentum, but it also shows a bearish divergence. Prices are stabilizing while the RSI fails to make a new high. This divergence typically signals a weakening of buying power and that the trend may be nearing exhaustion. The RSI bearish divergence is an important warning signal in technical analysis; it occurs when prices are making new highs or maintaining high levels, but the RSI indicator fails to synchronize and make a new high.

This divergence reveals a key issue: the price increase lacks momentum support. Although buyers are still trying to push prices higher, the driving force is weakening. In XRP price predictions, this divergence often indicates that the uptrend is about to reverse or at least enter a longer period of consolidation. When the RSI shows a reduction in buying power, it is difficult to break through key resistance levels even if prices maintain in the short term.

Recently, the K-line patterns are mainly Doji and Spinning Top, reflecting the market's indecision. A Doji appearing at the end of an upward or downward trend usually signifies that the trend is about to reverse or enter a consolidation phase. The Spinning Top indicates a balance of power between bulls and bears, with the market waiting for a new catalyst to determine the direction. This indecisive K-line pattern, combined with a bearish divergence in the RSI, further strengthens the judgment that the market is at a critical turning point.

Traders will closely monitor the appearance of bullish engulfing patterns to confirm that prices are regaining strength; or watch for bearish breakout patterns to confirm that prices will continue to drop to lower target levels. The bullish engulfing pattern refers to a large bullish candle completely engulfing the previous bearish candle, indicating a sudden increase in buying power. The bearish breakout pattern is when prices break down through support levels accompanied by increased volume, confirming the acceleration of the downtrend.

Breakthrough 3 USD, drop to test 2.02 USD

XRP price prediction remains bearish, but if XRP breaks through the range of $2.60 to $2.72, the upward momentum could accelerate, with a target near $3.00, which is the next resistance level. If it can consistently close above this range, it may confirm a short-term bullish reversal, with a target of $3.15, which is the peak of the previous consolidation phase. $3.00 is not only a technical resistance level but also an important psychological barrier. A breakout will attract chasing buyers, potentially triggering an accelerated pump.

However, if it fails to hold above $2.54, it may face the next downside targets around $2.26 and $2.02, both of which coincide with the lower boundary of the descending triangle. The support level at $2.54 is the bottom of the descending triangle and the last line of defense for the bulls. Once it breaks down, it will confirm the completion of the descending triangle pattern, forming a technical sell signal that could trigger a chain reaction of stop-loss orders.

XRP Price Prediction Dual Scenario Path:

Bullish Scenario: Breakthrough 2.60-2.72 USD → Target 3.00 USD (Pump 17%) → Further probe 3.15 USD (Pump 23%)

Bearish Scenario: Break below $2.54 → First target $2.26 (11% drop) → Second target $2.02 (21% drop)

2.26 USD is the medium-term support level, representing the lower boundary of the previous consolidation. If XRP falls to this level, it may attract bottom-fishing capital, forming a short-term Rebound. However, if it loses the 2.26 USD level, 2.02 USD will become a deeper support test. This price level is the measured target of a descending triangle, calculated from the height of the formation. If it reaches 2.02 USD, it indicates a drop of about 21% from the current price, which is a quite severe adjustment for a high market capitalization coin like XRP.

Trading Strategies and Risk Management Suggestions

For active traders, shorting below $2.54 with a target price of $2.02 and a stop loss near $2.73 provides an ideal risk-reward ratio. The logic behind this short strategy is that once it breaks below the $2.54 support, the descending triangle pattern is completed, and the technicals point to further declines. The stop loss is set at $2.73 because if the price breaks that level, it will invalidate the entire bearish narrative.

Risk-reward ratio calculation: Shorting from $2.54 to $2.02, potential gain of $0.52 (approximately 20%). Stop loss from $2.54 to $2.73, potential loss of $0.19 (approximately 7.5%). The risk-reward ratio is about 1:2.7, which is a relatively ideal trading setup.

On the other hand, if the price breaks through 2.72 USD, you may consider going long, with a target price of 3.00 USD. The logic behind this long strategy is that breaking through 2.72 USD will break the upper trend line of the descending triangle, turning the technical outlook bullish. Going long from 2.72 USD to 3.00 USD offers a potential return of about 10%. A stop loss can be set below the support level at 2.54 USD, with a reasonable risk-reward ratio.

Before determining a direction, XRP's trend remains in a delicate balance between consolidation and breakout, thus $2.60 is the key turning point to watch for the next significant move. Technical indicators suggest that a decisive movement may soon occur around this price level. Traders are closely monitoring key price levels, waiting for the market to provide a clear direction.

In terms of volume, the current daily trading volume of 2.16 billion USD is at a moderate level, neither particularly active nor quiet. A real breakout is often accompanied by a significant increase in volume. If XRP's volume doubles or more when breaking through 2.60 USD, it will greatly enhance the validity of the breakout. Conversely, if there is panic selling when it falls below 2.54 USD, the downward momentum will be stronger.