Baron Trump invests $10.9 million to short the Nasdaq! QQQ 570 put options expire on December 31, warning signs for tech stocks

Trump’s youngest son Barron Trump bought 10.9 million USD worth of QQQ570 put options, with an expiry date of December 31. During the night trading session, the US three major stock markets experienced intense volatility, with the Nasdaq index dropping 1.2%, and seven big tech giants falling. Barron previously opened massive short positions on Bitcoin, seemingly tasting some success, but also sparking widespread questions about insider trading within the Trump family.

Barron Trump bets 10.9 million USD on Nasdaq collapse of 9.14%

(Source: X)

Barron Trump bought QQQ570 put options valued at 10.9 million USD, with an expiry date of December 31. The core logic of this trade is betting that the Nasdaq 100 index will fall at least 9.14% within the next two months. QQQ is an ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, issued and managed by Invesco, designed to allow investors to conveniently share in the gains and losses of the Nasdaq 100 through a single security.

The Nasdaq 100 index is a benchmark in the global tech sector, selecting the top 100 non-financial companies by market capitalization on the Nasdaq market (such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc.), covering tech, consumer, healthcare, and other growth sectors, reflecting the development trend of the global innovation economy. QQQ’s portfolio fully replicates the components and weightings of the Nasdaq 100 index, achieving high correlation with the index through a passive management approach.

After falling 1.32%, QQQ is currently at 623.74. To reach 570, it still needs to drop 9.14%. The Nasdaq 100 is currently at 25,653; a 9.14% drop would bring it down to 23,443, back to August levels this year. August marked the cyclical low for tech stocks, when the market plunged due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and the Bank of Japan’s sudden rate hike. If the Nasdaq truly falls back to August levels, it would erase all gains made over the past three months.

The 10.9 million USD options scale is extremely rare. This is not small retail speculation but a large institutional-level bet. A put option grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying asset at a specific price (strike price) before expiry. QQQ570 puts mean Barron Trump has the right to sell QQQ at 570 USD before December 31. If QQQ indeed drops below 570 USD, the value of these puts will surge; if QQQ stays above 570 USD, these puts will expire worthless.

How many QQQ570 puts can 10.9 million USD buy? It depends on the options price (premium) at the time. If each put (covering 100 shares of QQQ) costs 5 USD in premium, then 10.9 million USD can buy approximately 218,000 contracts, corresponding to 21.8 million shares of QQQ. Such a position, if correctly betting on the direction, could yield extremely high profits.

Key Information on Barron Trump’s Short on Nasdaq

Investment amount: 10.9 million USD

Underlying: QQQ570 puts (Nasdaq 100 ETF)

Expiry date: December 31, 2025

Current QQQ price: 623.74 USD

Strike price: 570 USD

Required fall: 9.14%

Corresponding Nasdaq level: 23,443 (August level)

Market immediate reaction: Nasdaq down 1.2% in night trading, tech giants falling

Dual short strategy with Bitcoin short positions added

Adding to Barron’s massive Bitcoin short positions, he seems to have tasted some success. Market predictions suggest that in the remaining two months of this year, the Trump family is expected to take action in the tech sector. Barron Trump is shorting both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin, indicating a systemic view that risk assets will face a downturn in the coming months. This dual short strategy is not accidental but based on a systematic assessment of the market environment.

Tech stocks and Bitcoin have shown high correlation over the past few years. When market risk appetite rises, funds flow into tech stocks and cryptocurrencies simultaneously. When the market shifts to risk aversion, both decline together. Barron Trump’s simultaneous shorting of both markets indicates his belief that risk assets will face systemic correction in the next two months.

This judgment may be based on several factors. First, valuation pressures. The Nasdaq above 25,000 points has historically high P/E ratios, with increasing concerns over an AI bubble. Bitcoin above 100,000 USD also faces valuation doubts. Second, macro environment factors include the Fed’s hawkish stance, weakening rate cut expectations, a strong dollar, and rising real interest rates—all unfavorable for risk assets. Third, technical factors show both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin near key resistance levels, with technical indicators signaling waning momentum.

Fourth and most critically, insider information or policy expectations may be involved. As the president’s son, Barron Trump might have access to some undisclosed policy moves or economic data. If the Trump administration plans to introduce policies unfavorable to tech stocks in the next two months—such as antitrust enforcement, higher taxes on tech giants, or restrictions on AI development—Barron’s shorting could be based on this foresight. Of course, such insider trading is illegal, but the Trump family has historically been indifferent to conflicts of interest and insider trading allegations.

During night trading, the US three major stock markets experienced intense volatility, with the Nasdaq index down 1.2% and major tech giants falling. This immediate market reaction may not be directly caused by Barron’s trades (markets are unlikely to react immediately to a single trader’s position unless the scale is enormous or insiders believe they have confidential information), but the coincidental timing has sparked market speculation.

Trump family conflicts of interest and trading controversies

A US reporter asked Trump: Zhao Changpeng has caused significant damage to US security, allowing Hamas to transfer hundreds of millions of dollars in assets. Why did you pardon him? Trump: “I have no idea who he is.” The reporter pressed: “His Binance exchange facilitated your family’s $2 billion stablecoin acquisition, and then you pardoned him.” Trump: “I don’t know anything, I’m too busy, it was my son who told me to pardon him.”

This exchange reveals the core operation mode of the Trump family: the president claims ignorance or non-involvement publicly, but actual decisions are likely driven by family members (especially sons), ultimately approved by the president. This “president doesn’t know but does” pattern may legally avoid direct conflicts of interest but remains highly controversial ethically and politically.

As the youngest member of the Trump family (born 2006, currently 19), Barron is rapidly becoming a key figure in the family’s business empire. He is involved in multi-million dollar options trades, cryptocurrency investments, and potentially influencing his father’s decisions (such as pardoning CZ). This concentration of power and wealth is extremely rare in modern American political history.

From a market perspective, if Barron Trump indeed has insider information and trades accordingly, investors following him could profit. However, ordinary investors usually cannot access such large-scale trades in real time, and once the news spreads, the market may have already reacted. Moreover, copying trades carries risks, as you don’t know the other party’s total assets, risk tolerance, or hedging positions. Blindly following could lead to significant losses.

Technical and risk analysis of Nasdaq short

From a technical analysis perspective, a 9.14% fall to 23,443 points is possible but would require major negative catalysts. Potential triggers include: economic data significantly worse than expected, sparking recession fears; unexpected hawkish signals from the Fed, re-pricing rate cut expectations; poor earnings reports from tech giants, especially doubts over AI investment returns; escalation of geopolitical crises, triggering global risk aversion; or policies from the Trump government that are unfavorable to tech stocks.

However, shorting also involves huge risks. If the Nasdaq continues to rise or only falls slightly over the next two months, Barron’s 10.9 million USD could be entirely lost. The time value of options decays rapidly as expiry approaches; even if the directional judgment is correct but the fall is insufficient or the timing is late, losses may occur. Additionally, if the market discovers that the president’s son is making large short bets on tech stocks, it could trigger political and legal investigations—adding extra non-market risks.

For ordinary investors, Barron Trump’s trades offer an interesting market perspective but should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. If you have an independent view that the Nasdaq’s downside risk is real, consider reducing tech holdings or buying protective puts. But blindly following just because “the president’s son is shorting” could lead to information asymmetry and timing traps.

If the US stock market faces difficulties, global markets will be affected. If the Nasdaq truly drops 9%, Asian, European, and cryptocurrency markets could also decline. Investors should assess their risk exposure; those holding large amounts of tech stocks or crypto assets might consider hedging or reducing positions. But there’s no need for excessive panic—Barron’s trades are just one possibility, not a guaranteed outcome. The market is full of uncertainties, and rational assessment and cautious decision-making are the best responses.