BTC short-term strategy diary (2025-06-26 after European market → 06-27 Asian market morning)

BTC short-term strategy diary (2025-06-26 after European market → 06-27 morning session of Asian market)

Observation Window: 2025-06-26 18:30 UTC ±15 min Current Price: ≈ $106,950 (CoinGlass BRTI) Coverage Period: Tonight’s US market second half ➜ Tomorrow morning’s Asian market (≈ 12 hours)

1️⃣ 15 min chart structure

Key points: EMA 5/13 is above the price and has narrowed with EMA34/55, “bullet is loaded” — if the next 15 min breaks below 106 600-106 500 (VWAP + yesterday’s European session low), the death cross will be confirmed, targeting the 105 800 / 105 000 K gap fill order zone.

2️⃣ 4 h & Daily Line Background

• 4 h: The MACD bars are close to the zero axis, RSI 53 → neutral; the price is still holding above the 20EMA 104 300, with the upper descending channel resistance consolidating around 107 800-108 000 K.
• Daily: The bullish structure remains intact, with the moving averages in a bullish arrangement (20D > 50D > 100D); however, the Bollinger Bands are extremely wide, indicating that it will either continue to accelerate or experience a sharp pullback for digestion.

3️⃣ Macro & Derivatives Driven

4️⃣ Tonight - Tomorrow Morning Operation Script

Risk Management:

1. Positions crossing the 08:00 UTC option expiration period must reduce by more than 50% to prevent instant liquidation fluctuations.
2. Please pay attention to the contract funding rate with high leverage; >0.06% usually triggers Long-Squeeze in the consolidation area.
3. Pay attention to Middle East news updates & FED officials’ temporary interview transcripts. Once a crisis occurs, quickly hedge or exit.

5️⃣ Conclusion

• Technical Analysis: The 15-minute level has entered the “top divergence + EMA arrangement convergence” phase, with a short-term bias towards technical pullback; however, the daily bullish main trend remains intact, and the pullback appears more like a continuation digestion.
• Macro/Derivatives: Geopolitical ceasefire is fragile + massive option expiration = a breeding ground for volatility to expand after convergence; pay attention to the lower limit at 105 K, “pain point magnet”; focus on the upper limit at 108 K Gamma wall.
• Operation Suggestions: Flexibly switch between Scalp (15 min) → Swing (4 h); better to chase after confirmation than to heavily invest in guessing tops and bottoms.

This article is for technical research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please operate based on your own capital, leverage, and risk tolerance.