🧠 Current ETH trend structure overview

🔻 1. Interpretation of Market Changes

• The ETH morning session rebounded to $2630 but failed to break through with volume, entering a high-level consolidation.
• Large sell orders appeared before and after the US market, quickly breaking through the support levels of $2560 and $2500;
• The current rebound is encountering resistance around $2485, with a clearly weak structure, and shorts are dominant in the short term.

📉 2. Short-term Technical Indicator Analysis

1. 15min - 1h MACD

• MACD death cross confirmed, the histogram can expand into negative territory, short-term momentum is dominated by bears;
• If the volume continues to increase, there is still a possibility of further testing $2440 / $2400 in the evening.

2. RSI (1h)

• The RSI has fallen to the 35–38 range, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend;
• Not yet in oversold territory, but if not quickly fixed, it may approach 30 further (forming an oversold rebound structure).

3. KDJ / StochRSI

• KDJ death cross is moving down, J value has dropped below 20, and is forming deep bearish stagnation;
• Stoch RSI shows that momentum continues to decline, with no clear bottom signal.

📊 3. Key Technical Level Judgment

🔮 Evening Trend Analysis and Strategy Suggestions

✅ Trend Analysis:

ETH is currently in a weak pullback cycle, and the evening trend is expected to remain bearish and volatile:

• Downward Continuation Logic: If ETH cannot regain $2500 within 1 hour, bears will continue to dominate, and the price may pull back towards the $2440 → $2400 area.
• Consolidation Bottoming Logic: If the MACD bars can contract and the price stabilizes in the $2450–2480 range, a slight rebound may occur before tomorrow morning;
• Rapid Reversal with Extremely Low Probability: ETH can only retest $2500–$2550 under strong BTC rallies or significant positive stimuli.

🎯 Operation Suggestions:

✅ Short Position Main Logic:

• If ETH falls below $2440, you can try to short with a light position, targeting $2400–$2370;
• Stop-loss suggestion is set above $2505 (invalidated if it breaks back into the pressure zone).

🚫 Long positions are not advised to blindly bottom fish:

• Only consider attempting a short long when the price stabilizes at $2440 and the MACD shows a stop and golden cross;
• The real counterattack point may be built in the range of $2320–$2350.

📌 Summary

The market judgment for ETH tonight is: weak oscillation and correction → looking for bottom support area. The strategy should focus on defense and following the trend, avoiding chasing rebounds. If BTC does not show a clear stop of decline, ETH will continue to extend its downward correction pace.

This analysis is for reference only. Market conditions fluctuate wildly in real-time, please strictly control your position and stop-loss.