Today's trading hours review and current structure

• Intraday Trend: ETH quickly surged to $3,010 this morning, but there is明显 supply above, leading to a rapid pullback, currently stabilizing around $2,960. This indicates that there is still resistance in the short-term above.
• Technical Pattern: Forms a typical Head Fake Structure — the price breaks out and then retraces, potentially locking funds at a high level.

2. Real-time Interpretation of Technical Indicators

1. MACD (Hourly Level)
   • The current bars are gradually shrinking, and the MACD line is approaching a death cross with the Signal line. If the death cross is confirmed in the next hour or two and enters the negative zone, it will further confirm short-term turning bearish.
2. RSI (30 minutes)
   • The RSI has quickly fallen from the overbought zone to around 60, which is slightly bullish but in the early stage of a pullback. If it continues to decline to 50 or even 45, it will intensify short-term downward pressure.
3. KDJ / Stochastic
   • The KDJ shows a trend of high-level dullness, with obvious signs of a reversal from the highs, indicating that the price may continue to consolidate at high levels or decline in the short term.
4. EMA Moving Average (15min & 1h)
   • The 15-minute short-term EMA5/13/34 has flattened and shows a downward signal. If ETH cannot retrace and return above these moving averages, it indicates a bearish short-term trend.
   • The hourly EMA200 ~ $2,900 serves as medium-term support, if it breaks down, it is expected to push down further.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Resistance Above: $3,010–3,020 is the intraday high resistance zone. If it retraces to this area and remains blocked, it is likely to form a second top confirmation.
• Recent Support:
  • $2,920–2,930: Hourly EMA200 + Previous low support;
  • $2,880–2,900: Strong medium-term support area;
  • $2,820–2,840: If the short-term pulls back and breaks, it may continue to test this area.

4. News and Capital Support

• Institutional Fund Flow: According to statistics, the recent fund flow of ETH ETF remains active, with a cumulative net inflow of nearly $2.9 billion this year, indicating that mid-term demand can still be supported.
• Market Optimism: Continuous developments around Tokenization and Layer-2 projects (such as Robinhood building L2 on Arbitrum) add long-term momentum for ETH.
• Strategy Suggestion: For short-term, wait for the confirmation of the MACD death cross, and then you may test support by entering at a lower price.

5. Today’s Remaining Time Period Trend Outlook

• Weak Continuation Scenario (High Probability) If the short-term MACD death cross is confirmed and the RSI moves down again, ETH will continue to test $2,920–2,930. If it breaks below, there is a high possibility of further falling to the $2,880–2,900 range.
• Consolidation Bottom Formation If ETH stabilizes in the $2,960–2,980 range after a pullback and waits for volume and technical indicators to improve simultaneously, it may form a head and shoulders bottom or double bottom structure, providing support for tomorrow.
• Pullback Rebound Scenario If BTC strengthens at the same time, ETH may take the opportunity to rebound near the high points and with MACD turning golden cross, it is expected to test $3,020–3,040, or even attempt to hit the $3,100 high. However, the current situation is in a phase where bullish reactions are weakening, and the probability is relatively low.

6. Operational Strategy Recommendations

• Conservative Strategy: Wait for the price to pull back to the $2,920–$2,950 range and confirm that MACD & RSI stabilize, then enter a long position with a light position. The stop-loss can be set below $2,900.
• Aggressive Strategy: If the short-term quickly returns to $2,980–$3,000, and the MACD has adjusted but the RSI has not significantly declined, a small short position can be taken on the highs, targeting $2,920.
• Extreme Strategy: If it breaks below $2,900 and touches $2,880–$2,860, consider positioning lower-cost long positions to capture medium-term rebound opportunities, with stop-loss set after breaking the support.

• Current structure is bearish: The market has experienced a pullback from its high, and the short-term trend has weakened;

• Focus on Technical Confirmation: Successful pullback after MACD death cross is the main axis;

• Trading Advice: Focus on entering after support stabilizes or testing short at high levels as core strategies, with strict stop-loss.