The core PCE data for July is about to be released, which is crucial for Powell. Previously, Powell spoke at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, hinting that despite the upward risks of inflation, the Fed may still cut interest rates in the coming months. This statement was widely interpreted by the market as a "dovish" signal, so the release of the July core PCE data is undoubtedly the first major test of Powell's "dovish" stance. If the data exceeds expectations and shows that inflation pressures remain significant, the hopes for rate cuts after September may be dampened; if the data meets or falls below expectations, indicating a relief in inflation pressures, it may provide strong support for Powell's subsequent rate-cutting plans and further solidify market expectations for a rate cut in September.

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Looking at the evening market, the price of the coins has dropped to the lower Bollinger band on the 4-hour chart. This strong decline has broken through the support level without showing an effective rebound. From a technical perspective, this decline is likely to continue, with Bitcoin probably falling to around 118000, while Ethereum needs to pay attention to the defense situation at the lower level of 4200. The current market is in a stage full of contradictions and uncertainties, presenting a complex pattern of "local positive signals + overall trend unchanged." At this stage, the market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern. On one hand, the local positive signals are not enough to change the overall weak trend; on the other hand, the bearish forces still hold a certain advantage, and the market lacks clear upward breakthrough momentum. To confirm that the market trend has truly strengthened, we need to wait for the emergence of two key factors: first, a significant increase in trading volume, which indicates active participation of market funds; only with a large influx of funds into the market can there be sufficient momentum for the stock price to rise; second, an improvement in the moving average structure. When the bullish moving averages gradually dominate and form a good upward trend, the market's upward space can truly open up. Based on the above analysis, in my personal opinion, the bearish opportunities may be slightly greater. With the overall trend unchanged and many limiting factors present, the risk of downward adjustment in the market remains high. Bears can take advantage of the market's volatile pattern to lay out short positions at the high points of the rebound, capturing potential downward movements in the market for profit.

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