October 21, 2025

The entire market has dropped a bit again, but it’s actually quite boring; it still falls within the oscillation range we defined. In any case, it’s quite difficult to achieve a significant breakthrough in the near term. What can be expected is a breakthrough after the oscillation. However, to be honest, the difficulty of judging whether a breakthrough will happen is also quite high. After the sharp decline, everyone has seen the market trend and emotional direction; overall, it is oscillating with a slight decline, not including the previous drop of 1011.
The prediction markets I mentioned have been explored by different bloggers in recent days. The consensus in the industry is that prediction markets are the next track-level alpha. I still maintain that, whether in the primary or secondary market, we should follow the smart money, and the biggest smart money in this market comes from VCs.
Many people might be most concerned about whether there will still be a bull market ahead. From a macroeconomic perspective, we are still in the latter half of a rate-cutting cycle, and there are no signs of any turning points in various indicators, so the bull market in the crypto market has not yet ended. However, within the community, this time point happens to be at the turning point of the four-year cycle bull market. Additionally, our previous recommendations for operations at this stage have been to not continue increasing positions. Therefore, the first point is that there is no need to continue increasing positions.
However, for spot holders, I would recommend continuing to hold, especially for those with a low cost basis in their positions, because another purpose of holding assets is to combat the long-term excessive issuance of currency, and quality assets can outperform over the long cycle. In summary, the probability of continuing the bull market at present is relatively high.