Trump's 2024 Odds Hit 70% on Polymarket—Here's Why

Polymarket just flipped the script on the 2024 election. As of mid-July, Trump’s winning odds surged to 70%, up from 45% back in May. Biden dropped to just 16%. What changed? Two things: the June 27 debate performance gap and the July 13 assassination attempt that sent shockwaves through prediction markets.

The platform’s $257M betting pool shows real money flowing into Trump bets. While prediction markets aren’t scientific polls, they’re surprisingly effective at capturing sentiment shifts—especially when major events hit.

Why crypto traders are watching closely:

Trump has been crypto-friendly lately—he’s launched NFTs, called digital assets a good thing, and is speaking at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference on July 27. This alone has crypto community eyes glued to Polymarket.

Here’s the thing though: prediction markets can swing wildly and don’t always nail outcomes. The current 70% odds reflect today’s sentiment, not a locked-in prediction. Monitor it, but don’t treat it as gospel.

The real story? How fast markets react. From 45-45 tie to 70-16 in weeks. That’s the power of black swan events meeting liquid prediction markets.