What's Next for Fed Rates? June FOMC Meeting Decoded

Mark your calendar: June 17–18, 2025 – the Fed’s dropping its next rate decision, and spoiler alert: most traders don’t expect fireworks.

The Setup

Fed Chair Powell will unveil the policy call on Wednesday, June 18 at 2:00 PM ET (6:00 PM UTC), complete with fresh economic projections and a presser at 2:30 PM ET. Classic FOMC playbook.

What’s Priced In?

The market consensus is crystal clear: rates staying put at 4.25%–4.50% in June. Not even close. We’re talking 60–90% probability of a hold, which basically means the consensus is locked.

Here’s where it gets interesting—most economists are betting on zero moves through summer, with rate cuts potentially kicking off in September when we get fresh labor and inflation data.

The Last Move (May 6–7)

In their previous meeting, the FOMC kept rates steady and made it plain: any future cuts depend entirely on incoming economic indicators. Translation: they’re data-dependent, not pre-committed.

Bottom line: June is a pause-and-observe meeting. The real action probably doesn’t start until Q3. Keep an eye on CPI and jobs reports between now and September—those are the true rate-cut triggers.