#巨鲸行为分析 fell 4.68% in the past 24 hours, this drop is a bit fierce.

To be honest, the macro environment is indeed not very friendly right now. The government shutdown situation in the U.S. is still unfolding, and coupled with recent policy statements, it has directly reduced market liquidity expectations by 30%. Retail investors are feeling panic, and naturally, selling pressure has come.

Interestingly, the institutions are completely on two different wavelengths. MicroStrategy is still holding on to their belief and has just spent $45.6 million to buy 397 coins last week, at a cost price of $114,771. This company is really treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve to hoard. But on the other side? BlackRock directly liquidated 24,000 coins, cashing out $2.75 billion, and Sequans Communications also sold 970 coins to pay off debts. With such a large divergence among institutions, retail investors are surely more anxious.

The technical outlook is also not optimistic. Indicators like EMA, MACD, and RSI are all showing bearish signals right now, and the price is hovering below the key moving averages, making it difficult to see much rebound momentum in the short term.

But don't be too pessimistic. If the U.S. government's shutdown issue is resolved and the $700 billion liquidity in the Treasury account flows back into the banking system, historically, risk assets often welcome a rebound window during such times. Additionally, it is worth noting that the whale Cobratate recently made a move at the $101,000 position, buying 50 coins—this at least indicates that there are buyers willing to take over at this price level.

Of course, there are now quite a few new variables. After certain tariff policy statements targeting China were released, the market added another layer of uncertainty. With some trading platforms delisting leveraged trading pairs, the long and short game is likely to be very intense in the short term. It is advisable to wait for clearer signals before taking action.