What is the current situation in the marketplace?

One word: miserable. Two words: very miserable.

Bitcoin has dropped over 70% from its peak, and the decline feels like riding a roller coaster without fastening your seatbelt. As for the alts? They’ve fallen so hard that even their project teams don’t want to admit it. The once lively “skyrocket” calls in the Moments are now completely gone, eerily silent.

How did it get to this point?

Simply put, it’s a combination of internal and external pressures:

**External environment collapsed:**
The FED is aggressively tightening, raising interest rates and shrinking liquidity. Global liquidity is being drained, and funds are fleeing high-risk assets. The crypto market, known for its volatility, is naturally hit hardest, with money rushing out faster than anyone.

**Internal self-destruction is even worse:**
This is the real killer. During the bull run, many of the glamorous projects were built on high leverage and borrowed funds—false prosperity. This year, several large institutions collapsed one after another—Three Arrows Capital went bankrupt, Celsius filed for bankruptcy—like a row of dominoes falling. Panic selling and bank runs surged.

When will it bottom out?

Don’t expect to catch the exact lowest point. The bottom is a process, not a specific price. We need to watch a few key signals:

**The FED’s stance is the most critical.** When will they stop raising interest rates? When will they start easing liquidity again? That’s the steering wheel of the entire market. If their taps stay closed, it’s unlikely for the market to rebound.

**The blow must be clean.** All high-leverage, insolvent institutions need to be cleared out. Once there are no new major collapses, market sentiment can truly stabilize.

**A quiet market is a real signal.** When everyone around you loses interest in cryptocurrencies, no one posts charts in group chats, and media stops reporting, it might be close to the real bottom. This extreme pessimism often signals a reversal.

What should you do now?

**First, control your impulses.**
Don’t borrow money or leverage to “buy the dip”—that’s dancing on the edge of a knife. You might think you’re buying the bottom, but it could still be eighteen floors underground.

**Keep enough cash on hand.**
Having plenty of cash is the key. These funds are your ammunition for future opportunities—don’t spend it all now.

**Consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy.**
If you believe in this industry long-term, buy in fixed amounts at regular intervals to spread out your cost. Remember, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

**Learn and recharge.**
During the bull run, everyone was busy making quick money. The bear market is the perfect time to focus on research—see which projects have real technology and which can survive this winter.

In short:

This is deep winter, and the signs of spring haven’t appeared yet. Be patient, protect your principal, and wait for the next cycle.