#巨鲸行为分析 The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 35th day—this number ties the record for the longest shutdown in history.

The Senate has held 13 consecutive rounds of voting, and the budget bill is still stuck in place. The 14th vote is about to begin, but the market seems to no longer care about the outcome.

Some say this is an inevitable product of the political deadlock. But from another perspective: what happens to the capital markets the longer the government shutdown drags on?

According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, a shutdown lasting 4 weeks would result in an economic loss of about $7 billion, expanding to $11 billion after 6 weeks, and reaching $14 billion after 8 weeks. Behind these numbers is a continuous deterioration of market sentiment and the pressure of asset price corrections.

The old money on Wall Street won't miss this opportunity—panic selling often means undervalued quality assets. Historical experience tells us that the real winners are not those who panic and exit during a crash, but those who remain calm when others are fearful.

For the cryptocurrency market, this macro uncertainty will also bring volatility. Core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will follow the sentiment of traditional markets in the short term, but the long-term value logic has not changed.

Strategically, it is not advisable to invest heavily all at once. Gradually building positions is a more rational choice: assuming the market drops by 5% in the 4th week of stagnation, first allocate 30% of your position. If it continues to pull back in the 6th week, add another 40%. Use time to achieve a better average cost and use patience to counteract the short-term noise of the market.

In the short term, the market is driven by emotions; however, over a longer period, value will eventually return. Institutions are calculating their buying prices, and what we need to do is to stick to our own investment logic—don't let panic make decisions for you.