Bear Market? Don't be quick to judge.

In the past few days of plummeting prices, many people must be in a panic, right? Those who are cutting losses are cutting losses, and those who are bearish are being bearish. But I have to say, judging the current market using the old framework of bull and bear cycles is becoming less effective.

The U.S. is highly likely to start a new round of monetary easing soon, and the U.S. stock market hasn't peaked yet. As for the current pullback in the crypto market, I tend to interpret it as: clearing out the bubbles. The bubbles accumulated over the past two years are primarily concentrated in the hands of the whales. Retail investors? The spot market has long had little room for survival, with most people having moved on to trading contracts. Therefore, this round of decline has a clear objective — to wash out the whales, eliminate leverage, and accelerate the turnover of U.S. capital.

But have you noticed a strange phenomenon? The entire network is shouting that the Bear Market has come, and the market is also falling, and it's the kind of drop that doesn't come with any rebounds. But if it were really a major Bear Market, the decline should be more exaggerated, of the panic-selling kind. But now? Each candlestick looks like it has been meticulously designed, with people buying as it falls, clearly indicating that there is funding involved in wash trading.

The design of this candlestick's sentiment is to make you want to cut your losses. Recently, there may be a rebound coming, one that makes you feel "played." But none of this is important; the main tone going forward is still volatility. As for breaking below 90000? I think it's quite difficult.

Looking ahead, I am actually quite optimistic about next year's market. Some people are still talking about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, thinking it should be a Bear Market next year. But on the contrary, next year is the stage for the US to cash in on its monetary easing benefits. Just look at the current rhythm: the Asian market is down, and the US market is rebounding. Why? It's just taking the opportunity to harvest the chips from the Asian market, and naturally, the chips flow into the hands of US capital.

So, it's important to understand their intentions. If the price is low enough for spot trading, then stock up, and don't let emotions lead you. We'll talk about the issues with altcoins tomorrow.