XRP at the Inflection Point: 57% Bullish Probability or 43% Washout?

The Setup That’s Got Traders Divided

XRP is stuck in one of those moments where the next move could go either way. The token’s been bouncing between $2.40-$2.60 for weeks, and honestly, the technicals are painting a picture that’s too close to call — but slightly favoring the bulls.

Analysts point to a Descending Broadening Wedge forming on the chart, which basically means volatility is building before something breaks. The probability math: 57% upside breakout, 43% further downside. Not exactly a slam dunk, but the edge is there if you’re willing to hold through the chop.

The Historical Comparison That Changes Everything

Here’s where it gets interesting. Back in 2021, XRP went on an absolute tear — roughly 1,700% from bottom to peak. Fast forward to now: this cycle, it’s up about 1,160%. That gap suggests XRP might still be undervalued relative to what past cycles have delivered.

If history rhymes, price targets on the table range from $5.20 (conservative), to $9-$20 (ambitious), with outlier scenarios suggesting $27 if this bull run fully unfolds. The catch? That assumes XRP holds support and breaks through resistance convincingly.

What This Actually Means for Your Bags

The institutional money is flowing in too — XRP investment products have seen steady inflows despite the noise. That’s worth noting.

So the real question isn’t “will XRP moon?” It’s “which side of that 57/43 split do you believe in?” If you’re betting on the breakout, the thesis is hold and let volatility shake out the weak hands. If you’re in the 43% camp, taking profits near resistance and rotating to something less emotionally taxing makes sense.

Time horizon matters here. If you’re thinking decade-scale, this chop is just static. If you’re a swing trader, patience and entry discipline are everything.

Bottom line: XRP’s at a fork in the road. The probabilities lean bullish, but only slightly. Risk management isn’t optional.