# The four-year curse of Bitcoin may be about to fail.

I've been holding this in for a long time. Unless there is a violent surge that makes people kneel down in worship, after this round of market conditions, the classic script of "four-year halving = bull market code" might really be thrown into the historical trash bin.

Don't rush to criticize me for being pessimistic—I'm not saying that bull and bear cycles will disappear, but that the pricing logic of Bitcoin is undergoing a complete transformation. It is increasingly resembling a part of traditional financial markets, with price movements dependent on macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's stance, global liquidity tightening or easing, and geopolitical games. Halving events? The impact is being diluted.

A deep correction next year is almost a high-probability event, and a halving wouldn't be considered exaggerated. However, if it really drops this time, the driving force will no longer be some "cyclical pattern reaching maturity," but rather a byproduct of the global asset reshuffling.

# This year's main battlefield for making money is not in the coin circle.

My own earnings structure this year is quite interesting: I made 30% in the A-shares market, while the US stocks were even more brutal, directly hitting 50%. On the other hand, the crypto market only contributed 20%. Overall, I barely handed in a report card of 25%, which is passable but not impressive.

That said, if we extend the timeline—from October 2023 to now, Bitcoin has quadrupled in two years. This performance ranks among the top in a global comparison of asset classes.

So a poor short-term performance does not mean the trend is broken. It is very normal for the market to have ups and downs; the key is not to lose your footing due to a few months of fluctuations and recklessly mess up your long-term holdings.

# The rules of the altcoin game have completely changed.

The golden age of "buying altcoins with your eyes closed and still doubling your money" is over. The current market only offers opportunities to two types of players:

One approach is to firmly hold onto hard currencies like Bitcoin, the "digital gold," and ride the macro trends for gains; the other is to precisely target potential projects that have strong narratives, high popularity, and practical application scenarios.

I am currently focusing on two assets, HYPE and PUMP, and plan to gradually build my position in batches. It's not that they will definitely skyrocket, but the risk-reward ratio is relatively reasonable, making it worth allocating a portion of my position to take a chance.

The cryptocurrency market is essentially a high-risk casino, and this cannot be denied. But now we must learn to "bet with restraint" — place your bets when you have a clear view, and stay on the sidelines when you don't. Blindly chasing the highs will only turn you into someone who picks up the pieces after others have sold.

# When the market is bad, staying alive is more important than making money

Finally, let's talk about position management, which is a survival skill that many people underestimate.

During market fluctuations, position control is the top priority! Don't operate frequently just because of impatience, and don't dream of making a comeback by heavily investing. Unless you have a strong psychological quality to ignore daily fluctuations of dozens of points in your account, otherwise aggressive all-in is mostly a suicidal operation.

At this stage, I would rather earn a little less than be washed out of the market by significant fluctuations. As long as the green mountains remain, there will be a chance to wait for the next real bullish wave.

Remember: Only those who endure the cold winter are qualified to enjoy the fruits of spring.