This round of market big dump, some say it's a technical pullback, but if you carefully analyze the data, you'll find it's a "perfect storm."

Let's start with the worst trade - a Bitcoin long position on a major platform exploded with a loss of 47.87 million USD. When this number came out, the whole network went crazy. But the problem is, this is not an isolated incident. If you look back over the past 72 hours, you'll see a more terrifying chain reaction.

**Two bombs have already exploded within the industry**

On November 3rd, the well-established DeFi project Balancer was hacked, losing 116 million USD due to a critical vulnerability in the code. Before the community could react, the next day Stream Finance, a wealth management platform, directly faced a big dump, evaporating another 93 million USD. In just two days, the industry lost 200 million USD out of thin air—this collapse of trust happened faster than the price fall.

**Deadly Combination at the Macroscopic Level**

The Federal Reserve has clearly stated that it is in no rush to cut interest rates, causing the market's previous expectations for rate cuts to collapse. Even worse, ETF funds are fleeing at an alarming rate: there was a net outflow of 800 million USD last week, and on November 3rd, another 180 million was withdrawn in a single day. BlackRock's IBIT fund withdrew 715 million USD in just four days, accounting for half of the total outflow in the market. Big players like Fidelity and Grayscale are also withdrawing their investments.

Additionally, with the U.S. government shut down for 35 days and the Treasury directly withdrawing 700 billion in cash from the market, there are still uncertainties regarding tariffs at the policy level. Can global risk assets not crash at this time?

**On-chain data is more brutal**

In the past 30 days, those long-term holders, (LTH), have sold 405,000 bitcoins, cashing out $42 billion. The toughest part is that the medium wallets holding 10 to 1000 BTC have become the main force in the pullback. Interestingly, the whales are still slightly increasing their positions—but this won't save the market.

When ETF institutional funds and old investors on-chain simultaneously rush to escape, liquidity is instantly drained, and the price free-fall becomes inevitable. This is not a technical adjustment caused by a single factor, but a triple resonance of institutional redemptions, industry explosions, and macro tightening.

**Regarding the market outlook, several institutions have provided forecasts:**

Glassnode believes that if it falls below the support level of 113,000 USD, it may pull back to 88,000; 10x Research's judgment is more conservative, suggesting that after breaking 107,000, it may need to test the 100,000 integer mark; Half Moon Xia directly states that the bull market cycle has ended, and in the short term, it may see 84,000, but extending to the end of next year, there is a chance to return to 240,000 USD.

The current market is not that no one is bullish, but that no one dares to jump in casually. However, looking back at historical data, November is often the starting point for Bitcoin rebounds. As for whether this time will continue this pattern? Let's take it step by step and at least avoid making impulsive decisions during moments of panic.