Tonight at 9:15 PM! The "Non-Farm" ADP data hits the gold market with a storm, with the 3940 level remaining uncertain.

At 9:15 PM tonight, the U.S. October ADP employment data will be officially released. The market currently expects an increase of 25,000 jobs, compared to the previous decline of 32,000. The difference in these figures holds the key to the future direction of gold.

In an environment where official employment data often "misleads," ADP has become the primary indicator for assessing the true state of the U.S. labor market, with influence far beyond previous levels. The results will directly impact Federal Reserve policy expectations and trigger global asset price fluctuations:

- If the data exceeds expectations: U.S. employment resilience is confirmed, giving the Fed more confidence to maintain high interest rates. Expectations of a rate cut in December will significantly diminish. This could strengthen the dollar, pressure U.S. stocks, and cause gold to quickly retrace, potentially testing the 3900 USD level again.

- If the data falls significantly short: Signals of a cooling labor market will be confirmed, increasing the likelihood of a December rate cut to over 80%. Gold, currently weakly fluctuating around $3,940 per ounce, may rebound and open upward space.