#巨鲸动向 The US October ADP employment report will be released at 21:15 tonight. This data, known as "mini non-farm payrolls," could become the catalyst that stirs the market.

Recently, the official employment data has been frequently revised, and the market is skeptical about its credibility. Instead, the ADP report is increasingly being regarded as a barometer. Right now, everyone is waiting to see just how strong the U.S. labor market really is.

The key point of this data release is as follows: if the data exceeds expectations and strengthens, it would be a cold shower for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December. The logic is straightforward: robust employment means the economy is not collapsing, and the central bank has no urgent need to loosen monetary policy. The result is an enhanced dollar siphoning effect, which may put pressure on US stocks and gold.

A glance at history reveals that ADP data has never followed the rules. Last October, the data came in far below expectations, causing gold to surge over 3% in a single day, while tech stocks collectively plummeted; this March, the data unexpectedly rose, leading the dollar index to increase by 1.5% within a week, while gold futures were directly hammered into a deep pit. What does this indicate? Market sentiment is extremely reliant on this report, which dares to 'tear up the face' more than official figures.

Tonight, when monitoring the market, don't just look at the numbers themselves; you need to observe the market's reaction speed. When the data is strong, the dollar is likely to see a short-term surge followed by profit-taking; when the data is weak, also be wary of whether gold can hold its key support level and avoid being tricked by false breakouts.

Ultimately, what the market fears most is not the quality of the data, but the emotional loss of control brought about by "expectation discrepancies." Institutions have already laid the groundwork, and retail investors need to understand the signals in the market—how prices move is a hundred times more important than predicted figures. Tonight's game is both a risk and an opportunity; it all depends on which side you stand on.

$ETH $SOL