This wave of market movement is truly a love-hate situation.

Looking to the left, there's the "End of Bull Market" theory: with the four-year cycle in place, the year should be wrapping up. Bitcoin often retraces over ten thousand points intraday, shaking out traders and causing panic. Altcoins are even more extreme—rising for just a couple of days before forming a deep V-shape, making you think the bear market is arriving early.

Looking to the right, there's the "Macro Stimulus" theory: the Fed has already started cutting interest rates, which is the favorite script for bulls. When liquidity loosens, the crypto market always follows suit with excitement.

So now, the market feels like Schrödinger's bull and bear—you think it's going down, and it rebounds; you think it's going up, and it plunges.

But I have a somewhat immature hypothesis: there's a high chance we still owe ourselves a solid rally.

Why? Two reasons:

1. The effects of rate cuts haven't fully played out yet. Once genuine capital inflows surge in, this crypto pond won't stay quiet for long.
2. Although ETF inflows have slowed recently, institutional holdings are still in place. They’ll need to find opportunities to offload their positions, right? They can't just exit at a loss.

Here's my current approach:

1. Avoid all the sudden surging altcoins—they're just traps to lure you in.
2. Keep a close eye on the 100,000 level for Bitcoin. If it truly breaks below, it's time to exit—don't hesitate.
3. Keep some USDT in reserve. Wait until the market direction becomes clearer, or when there's a panic-driven plunge, then consider bottom-fishing for a rebound.

Right now, entering the market takes guts, and exiting requires discipline. Never be too brave when you should be cautious, or too cautious when you should be brave.