#币安合约实盘 This morning, BTC experienced a big dump. Do you understand the flow of funds?

Many people are staring at the K-line in confusion, but this wave of decline hides a clear capital logic — liquidity tightening has cornered risk assets.

Let's first talk about the U.S. Treasury auction. The government shutdown has led to the TGA account hitting the bottom, and the market is already short on cash. Although the Federal Reserve is trying to inject liquidity into the banks, the bond market's ability to attract funds is even stronger: this time, the nominal scale of the three-month and six-month U.S. Treasury auction was $163 billion, with the actual issuance amount reaching $170.69 billion. After deducting the reinvestment portion, it has withdrawn $163 billion from the financial market in a short period of time.

This may not be a big deal usually, but now it is a tightening cycle. Large amounts of capital are being withdrawn, and risk assets are the first to suffer. The fall of BTC is essentially an immediate reaction to capital outflow.

What adds insult to injury is Goolsbee's speech. The hawkish stance has cooled December rate cut expectations, with the probability falling from nearly 70%. Rate cut expectations were originally an important factor supporting risk assets, but now this pillar has weakened, leading to a natural increase in short-term pressure. With tight funds and a shift in sentiment, BTC has fallen the most significantly.

But don't panic too much.

Where is the turning point? After the government resumes operations, TGA will replenish funds, which will improve liquidity conditions; if the Federal Reserve adjusts the overnight reverse repurchase pace to release short-term liquidity, the pressure can also be relieved. The liquidity cycle never stays tight forever; the key is to see the direction clearly.

In difficult market times, opportunities often lie hidden. What really deserves attention is not the rise and fall of a single candlestick, but the underlying logic of capital flow.