#隐私币生态普涨 Policy direction changes suddenly? Interpreting the real signals behind the recent crypto market fluctuations.

Yesterday, US stocks and the crypto market rebounded collectively. On the surface, it seems that a certain political figure has once again endorsed Bitcoin, coupled with expectations that the government shutdown may soon be resolved. But is this surge just a flash in the pan, or the beginning of a trend reversal?

First, let's look at the signals from the policy level. Trump urgently spoke out yesterday in an attempt to stabilize market sentiment, mentioning that "encryption has significantly reduced the pressure on the dollar, and the United States needs to become a superpower in the Bitcoin field," and also promised that the stock market would continue to hit new highs. However, such statements seem more like a reassurance for the market, and their substantive effect remains to be observed.

The truly noteworthy variable lies in the issue of tariffs. Data from the prediction platform Kalshi shows that the probability of the global tariff policy promoted by Trump receiving support from the Supreme Court has plummeted to 29%. This signal is quite critical — once the tariff policy is obstructed, the import costs for businesses will directly decrease, profit margins will expand accordingly, and inflationary pressures can also be alleviated. Technology companies and manufacturers that rely on cross-border supply chains will be the first to benefit. The performance of the sectors also reveals clues: semiconductor and cross-border manufacturing stocks have seen significant increases, while defensive assets have performed modestly, indicating that funds are betting in advance on the loosening of tariffs.

Regarding the government shutdown, both parties are likely to reach a compromise next week. Trump himself has also publicly expressed a desire to end the deadlock as soon as possible. However, the current tight liquidity in the market is an objective issue.

On-chain data reveals some contradictory signs:
Reasons for being bullish: The turnover rate of Bitcoin is declining, indicating that the selling pressure is easing; the price support level has not been breached and has currently rebounded to around $104,000.
Risks still exist: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive days, and institutional funds in the United States are still withdrawing. Moreover, it is worth noting that large holders have sold more than 400,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, while the buying volume is only around 375,000, indicating that selling pressure is significantly stronger than the buying force.

However, there is one piece of data that seems somewhat optimistic: analysts estimate the fair value of Bitcoin to be around $98,000. The current price is already close to this range, indicating that the bubble has basically been squeezed clean, and there is relatively limited space for further collapse.

My view is that whether this round of rebound can continue mainly depends on two points - whether the tariff policy is truly overturned and whether the government shutdown can be resolved quickly. Maintaining calm during short-term fluctuations is much more important than blindly chasing hot spots. Looking back at the LUNA crash in 2022, many people fell victim to the obsession of "buying the dip."

What is needed now is to patiently observe and wait for the signals to be sufficiently clear before taking action. Don't rush to buy the dip, and don't let emotions sway you.