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Futures
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Fed, Aralık'ta indirecek mi? Piyasa 10'da 7 veriyor.
Operatörler, Aralık ayında bir faiz indirimine büyük bahisler yapıyor. CME FedWatch, Federal Rezerv'in bu ay 25 baz puan düşürme olasılığının %69.8 olduğunu gösteriyor.
Ama burada ilginç olan şey geliyor:
Aralık:
Ocak (Aralık):
Analiz: Eğer Fed Aralık'ta indirirse, piyasa bunun orada durmasını bekliyor (56.6% sadece 25 pb Ocak'ta ). Ancak, güçlü bir şekilde devam etme olasılığı neredeyse 4'te 1 (50 pb birikmiş ).
Çeviri? Önümüzdeki haftalardaki enflasyon verileri anahtar olacak. Eğer Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE) yukarı sürpriz yaparsa, Fed'in daha temkinli olması mümkün. Eğer düşerse, daha agresif kesintiler gelebilir.