2025-12-03 02:25:05

BTC net absorption volume (25-hour moving average) just surged to +$50 million, the strongest since October 2—when it was also around $50 million. Anomalies of this magnitude often occur before a shift in market sentiment, indicating that real spot buying is returning, while most traders are still on the sidelines.

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DefiPlaybook

· 12-05 02:31

According to the data, a net absorption volume of $50 million is indeed worth noting, but here's a detail—the smoothing effect of the 25-hour moving average may mask shorter-term volatility. The specific analysis is as follows: first, the relationship between spot inflows and hedging by futures shorts; second, the risk reminder that retail investors often only follow after a sentiment reversal has already occurred, which is usually the second wave of the trend. --- $50 million? Based on historical on-chain data patterns, this kind of sudden spike often lags about 48 hours behind the actual sentiment turning point, so don’t be misled by leading indicators. --- Interesting, the same volume happened on October 2 as well, so what? How did the market move afterward? As I recall, there wasn’t any particularly clear trend confirmation. --- Spot buy flow returning is indeed a positive signal, but it’s important to distinguish between net institutional inflows vs. retail chasing highs. TVL data doesn’t lie. --- This was discussed in the paper: in market microstructure, abnormal net absorption values are often false signals before liquidity dries up—be cautious. --- Most traders are on the sidelines? Isn’t this the most common herd effect window? By the time things really break out, it’s usually too late.

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