Recently, there has been a discussion in the market that is getting hotter and hotter: Is Bitcoin's classic "four-year halving cycle" theory no longer working?

Looking through the latest statements from various bigwigs, I found an interesting phenomenon - from Wall Street to the top players in the crypto circle, the views are surprisingly consistent.

MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor put it bluntly: "There is no cycle, only continuous asset absorption." In his eyes, Bitcoin is digital gold, and since it is gold, it is used for farming, not for speculation.

Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said more euphemistically: "History rhymes, but it does not simply repeat." He believes that the volume of institutional funds brought by ETFs has completely changed the market structure. Take the candlestick chart of the last three halvings to predict the future? That is carving a boat to ask for a sword.

ARK's Cathie Wood also made a point: institutional entry will make the plunge shallow. She feels that the "bottoming" of this cycle may have been completed long ago, because the structure of market participants has changed.

Grayscale's research team is more optimistic, defining the 30% pullback as a "springboard", believing that the current decline is just a normal correction in the middle of a bull market and not a signal of the end of the cycle at all.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes put it more directly: "As soon as the money printing machine is turned on, periodiology is dead. He believes that the core driving force behind Bitcoin's current rise and fall is the liquidity policies of the Federal Reserve and central banks, and the relationship with the halving has become weaker and weaker.

Real Vision's Raoul Pal has a more macroscopic perspective, seeing this round as a "structural bull market of more than 5 years", essentially the result of a combination of global debt cycles and technology adoption rates, rather than a simple four-year cycle.

On the investment banking side, both Bernstein and VanEck mentioned in their reports that "demand has not yet been met" and institutional buying has just begun to be released, which will drive a lengthened, atypical super bull market.

CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju gave evidence from on-chain data: chips are flowing from retail investors to long-term institutions. He said that the old cyclical model was built on the behavior of retail investors, but now that the main market force has been replaced, the model will of course fail.

To be honest, these views are not necessarily correct, but at least one thing is said: the market is indeed changing. The simple cycle of "halving-bull-top-bear market" in the past may really need to update the cognitive framework.