When I hear Powell say rates are now “in a plausible range of neutral,” there’s always a reason behind that wording. It’s the type of language the Fed uses when they’re trying to quietly shift the tone without admitting anything directly.

And every time we’ve heard this in the past, it usually meant one thing the hiking cycle is basically done.

When the Fed believes policy is hovering near neutral, the next move is rarely another aggressive hike. It’s usually a pause, and eventually the market starts pricing in easing long before the Fed even mentions it out loud.

There’s no panic in his voice this time, just a controlled message. That’s what caught my attention. Because when the Fed steps back, liquidity steps forward and risk assets love that backdrop.

Short take: Powell is opening the door. The market will walk through it way before he does.
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