Like Bitcoin, Ethereum experienced similarly intense volatility early this morning. It followed Bitcoin's lead, surging to 3440, then plummeting to around 3320. During the early trading session, it briefly broke below the psychological level of 3300 and is currently seeking support around 3200 USD, showing a clear weak trend.

The previously somewhat stronger technical structure of Ethereum has been dragged down by the overall market, re-entering a correlated decline mode with Bitcoin.

Structural breakdown risk: The price has consecutively lost the key levels of 3400 and 3300, severely damaging the daily rebound structure. The previously formed "higher lows" pattern faces the risk of invalidation.

Support levels below: Recent focus should be on around 3200, the support strength of the 50-day moving average and previous high-volume trading zones. If this level is broken, the next target will test the core area of 3050-3100.

Resistance levels above: 3300 has shifted from support to a strong resistance during recent rebounds, with an even more significant resistance above 3400.

On-chain data contradictions: The only good news is that Ethereum's centralized exchange reserves have fallen to multi-year lows, accounting for about 8.7% of the total supply, indicating limited potential selling pressure. However, in the face of systemic macro risks, this fundamental advantage may be temporarily overlooked.

Short-term risk points: Ethereum's unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator has risen to 0.296, entering the "Optimistic-Anxious" zone. This means holders are sitting on substantial paper profits, which could lead to short-term profit-taking pressure and cause fluctuations in the upward movement. #美联储降息预测 $ETH