2025-12-11 11:00:30

#加密生态动态追踪 Regarding the signaling of the next wave of market movement, industry analysts are generally focusing on a key indicator—the US ISM index.

According to historical patterns, once this indicator breaks from below 50 to above 50, it often signals the start of a super cycle for $BTC and $ETH. Some analysts have pointed out in recent discussions that this correlation has been validated across multiple cycles in the past. Even though there have been voices claiming that this year's four-year cycle has been weak, from a macro perspective, that judgment may be overly pessimistic.

There are even opinions predicting that as long as the ISM data surpasses the critical threshold, institutional capital inflows could be very strong, and the burst of a new market wave might exceed expectations. Currently, the index is still hovering below 50, but once it confirms a breakthrough, market reactions could be very swift.

What do you think? Is this really a "wolf coming" scenario, or is there actual support behind it?

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BoredWatcher

· 4h ago

ISM this thing has been talked about a hundred times, every time it's the boy who cried wolf. So what’s the result? I actually think this wave looks good, but don’t throw my money in just yet. Wait, do institutions really listen that obediently? I’m not so sure. Sounds nice, but it still depends on the Fed’s mood. Breaking 50 on the ISM is just a prelude; there are a bunch of other things coming. Historical patterns? That’s just a reference, not an iron law. Last time, when I said that about BTC, it didn’t really rise much. Get ready to buy the dip, everyone. This time feels a bit different, but maybe I’m overthinking it. They started hype before the index even broke 50, typical early speculation. Instead of waiting for the ISM, it’s better to look at institutional holdings data; that can tell us more. I’ll consider entering the market on the day it breaks 50. For now, just watch and don’t follow the herd to get chopped. It’s easy to say, but when it’s really time to make money, nobody’s really taking action. Mental preparation still needs to be done. It feels like it’s really happening this time, otherwise why are so many big influencers shouting about it?

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DegenDreamer

· 21h ago

ISM this thing, to be honest, I half believe and half don't... Historical patterns are always "past tense" in the face of macro data. Let's wait until really breaks through before discussing it; it's a bit early to talk about this now. Institutional funds are pouring in fiercely... Just listen, don't get brainwashed. By the way, with the four-year cycle of weakness, don't you have a sense of what's going on this year? I just want to ask, if ISM breaks through, does that mean BTC will definitely take off? Feels like this logic is a bit rigid. Every time they say "this time is different," they said the same last time... Looking at the fundamentals is correct, but don't treat ISM as a universal key; that's too naive.

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AlphaWhisperer

· 12-11 11:09

ISM indicator? I've been watching it for so many years, and I've never seen it be accurate once. You're just telling stories again. --- Institutional funds? Uh, let's wait and see if ISM really breaks 50 first. Right now, it's just slogans. --- Historical patterns... Bro, I've heard this tune last year too. Don't you have a sense of how it turned out? --- No, why do you always use macro data to justify your long positions? Isn't it better to look directly at on-chain data? --- I just want to know who’s waiting to scoop up the price above 50, haha. --- It's ISM again, and the super cycle. I've been hearing these words since 2021. --- Let's talk about the breakout point when it happens. It's a bit early to discuss this now. --- The logic looks good, but I've heard too many stories about "confirming a breakout."

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MissedTheBoat

· 12-11 11:09

ISM breaks below 50 again, this joke has been told several times already, are we really fooling ourselves? It's good to be optimistic, but I'm afraid institutions might also be waiting for this signal. But to be honest, the macro situation has definitely looked better than three months ago. Missing out so many times, just waiting for this moment. If it can't break below 50, we'll continue to stay on the sidelines, right?

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SquidTeacher

· 12-11 11:08

ISM this indicator has been hyped for so long, did it really break through? Let’s wait for the data before jumping to conclusions—no more false alarms. Even if institutions really come in, it probably won’t affect us much. First, protect your own coins, then think about the super cycle. Historical patterns? Laughable. They said the same thing last time, and look what happened. Wait until ISM actually stabilizes above 50 before discussing further. It’s too early to talk now. A four-year cycle of weakness is just that—weakness. Don’t look for excuses; when the market arrives, it arrives. It’s really just a gamble on the Federal Reserve’s stance. ISM is just a reference; don’t be too superstitious.

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GasFeeSobber

· 12-11 11:07

Although the ISM indicator looks reliable, I still have some doubts... Historical patterns in the crypto world are often not reliable. Will institutions really be that obedient? It always feels like something is off. Instead of waiting for the ISM to break through, it's better to see how the whales are moving. Honestly, the 50 line is a bit mysterious; should we trust macroeconomics or on-chain data? Breaking the 50 level to trigger a surge? Come on, with such a high proportion of air coins, who dares to go all in?

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