Just came across an intriguing piece of news—Reuters survey shows that over 90% of economists are betting that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the December policy meeting. This is not a symbolic move but a direct increase from 0.50% to 0.75%. Even more bullish predictions suggest that rates could reach 1% by September next year.

This calls for careful consideration. Think about it: in the past two years, central banks worldwide have been busy cutting rates and flooding markets with liquidity, but Japan might be reversing course—this would be their first meaningful rate hike since January this year. The last gatekeeper of zero interest rates might be changing shifts?

The current situation is already quite complicated: expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts keep bouncing back and forth, and each country pushes their own policies. If Japan actually starts a rate hike cycle, it’ll be even harder to predict the direction of this chess game. How much the global liquidity faucet is turned down directly affects the prosperity of risk assets.

This turning point is a bit unexpected, but markets are never short of surprises. In the coming months, we’ll need to keep a close eye on the yen’s movements and capital flows.