Brief

Kaspa's price fluctuates between technical momentum and macroeconomic challenges.

Crescendo update (Q1 2026) – increasing block speed to 10 per second, targeting DeFi and real-time payments.
Decreased interest in altcoins – Bitcoin's dominance at 58.8% draws risk capital.
Whale accumulation – strategic purchases amid oversold RSI (33.71) indicate contrarian bets.

Detailed analysis

1. Crescendo update and smart contracts (positive factor)

Overview:
The Crescendo hard fork, scheduled for Q1 2026, will increase Kaspa's block creation rate from 1 to 10 per second, with a long-term goal of 100 blocks per second. After the previous update in May 2025, daily transactions grew from 100,000 to 700,000 (CoinMarketCap). The DAGKnight update (also in Q1 2026) will add transaction finalization within fractions of a second, making Kaspa an attractive PoW network for high-frequency operations.

What this means:
Increasing throughput could attract developers to migrate Ethereum applications via Kasplex zkEVM, expanding network capabilities. Historically, the May 2025 update caused a 32% price increase — a similar effect could occur with active adoption of the technology.

2. Altcoin liquidity crisis (negative factor)

Overview:
Altcoins are experiencing significant outflows: the altcoin season index (CMC) is only 17 out of 100, down 39% in a month. Kaspa's 24-hour trading volume ($29.4 million) is 78% below its maximum, and the crypto market fear and greed index is at 29, indicating "fear" (CoinMarketCap).

What this means:
Low liquidity increases volatility. A support break at $0.045 (November 2025 minimum) could trigger cascade stop-loss sell-offs. Conversely, a Bitcoin rally above $100 000( could revive demand for altcoins.

3. Whale activity and miner dynamics )mixed effects(

Overview:
In November 2025, major holders )whales( accumulated over 35 million KAS, according to Yahoo Finance. However, monthly reductions in miner rewards due to Kaspa’s chromatic emission put downward pressure on token sales until July 2026, when 95% of the total supply will be mined.

What this means:
Strategic accumulation suggests long-term confidence, but miners may sell tokens to cover expenses during bear markets. It’s crucial to monitor the circulating supply )27 billion KAS and exchange reserves.

Conclusion

Kaspa’s prospects in 2026 depend on balancing technical updates with macroeconomic challenges. The Crescendo fork and smart contract integration could boost developer activity, but Bitcoin's dominance and miner sales pose risks. Can Kaspa maintain momentum amid low altcoin trading volumes? Watch resistance levels at $0.047 and Bitcoin market share.