#美联储降息预测 Easing of interest rates becomes a "reverse catalyst"

The Federal Reserve's rate cut of 25 basis points did not bring the expected celebration to the crypto market. Bitcoin initially surged from $92,900 to $94,500, then began to decline, with a low of $90,800, a daily volatility of 4%; Ethereum climbed to $3,440 before falling back, dropping to a low of $3,320, a decline of over 3%. Mainstream cryptocurrencies collectively came under pressure, with ADA, XRP, and Dogecoin falling more than 3%, Solana dropping over 1%, and the entire market showing a reversal pattern of "bad news equals immediate decline."
This phenomenon of "buy the expectation, sell the fact" is not an isolated case. In 2023, during the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, Bitcoin also experienced similar volatility. It rose 2.3% before closing the day down 1.8%. An analyst pointed out: "The crypto market’s reaction to macro policies is increasingly resembling risk assets, and overestimating expectations has become the norm."
This situation appears to be profit-taking after the rate cut, but in reality, it is the result of multiple negative factors overlaying each other.
On one hand, the market had already priced in the rate cut as early as November. A survey showed that 83% of crypto investors had already taken long positions ahead of the announcement. After the news, short-term profit-taking led to a net outflow of $1.2 billion from Bitcoin in a single day;
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve hinted that "future rate cuts will be limited," breaking the market’s optimistic fantasy of a loose monetary cycle. The US dollar index rebounded briefly by 0.5%, putting downward pressure on risk assets.
More critically, institutional confidence cooled: Standard Chartered Bank downgraded Bitcoin’s year-end target price from $200,000 to $100,000, citing "liquidity tightening and regulatory uncertainty," which led to a net redemption of $420 million from crypto funds in a single day. Coupled with Bitcoin dropping 27% from its October peak, market liquidity hit a six-month low, large investors' buying activity weakened, further amplifying volatility.
This market anomaly essentially reflects a deepening linkage between the crypto market and macro policies—it is no longer an isolated "island" independent from traditional finance, but increasingly follows macro variables such as Federal Reserve policies and the US dollar cycle. The surge in liquidations exposes the fragility of high-leverage trading and market overreaction to policy expectations.
Looking ahead, the crypto market might enter a "macro-driven + low volatility" phase: if the Fed maintains "limited easing," Bitcoin could fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000; only if more dovish signals are released later could it break through this range.
However, two major risks should be watched: first, over 40% of trading remains high leverage, and the next wave of volatility could trigger larger-scale liquidations; second, the concentration of institutional holdings is rising, with data showing that the top 100 Bitcoin addresses hold 19% of the total, increasing the impact of large holders’ moves on the market. For investors, this "rate cut scare" serves as an important warning: beneath the "decentralized" appearance of cryptocurrencies, they are deeply embedded in the global financial system. Understanding macro policies and managing leverage risk are more crucial than simply chasing market trends. As the market increasingly resembles "traditional risk assets," it may indicate maturity, but it also reminds us—high returns always come with high volatility. Respect the market, operate rationally, and survival depends on prudent decision-making.