#加密市场观察

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, while the Bank of Japan raises rates? Is there some conspiracy behind this? What impact does it have on the crypto market?

Recently, the Federal Reserve has started cutting rates, while the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise rates. This rare "counteracting move" has led many investors to think of "currency wars" or "financial covert battles." However, in reality, there is no conspiracy behind this; it is an inevitable result of the fundamentally different economic conditions of the two countries. The core impact lies in reversing the long-standing "yen carry trade" logic that has dominated the market for years.

1. Why are they diverging? Economic realities explain it

· US Rate Cuts: The main goal is to address potential economic growth pressures and inject liquidity into the market. The market expects this to initiate a loosening cycle.
· Japan Rate Hike: This is not an attack on the US but a "passive" choice due to high domestic inflation (core CPI continuously above the 2% target) and ongoing depreciation pressure on the yen. The rate hike aims to stabilize the exchange rate and combat imported inflation, representing a normalization of monetary policy.

2. Impact on the crypto market: Short-term pain and long-term patterns

The direct effect of the "scissors" between US and Japanese monetary policies is the compression of the profit space from the long-standing "yen carry trade." Previously, investors borrowed low-interest yen to buy high-yield assets such as US dollars, US bonds, US stocks, and even cryptocurrencies. Now, the situation is reversing:

1. Short-term (next few months): Volatility and pressure

· Liquidity tightening: As borrowing costs in yen rise, some carry trade investors may need to sell cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to repay yen loans, which could create short-term selling pressure.
· Decline in risk appetite: A strengthening yen is often associated with rising global market risk aversion, which may dampen speculative enthusiasm for risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

2. Medium to long-term (next 1-2 years): Liquidity rebalancing and new opportunities

· Not a liquidity crunch: Japan’s high government debt means rate hikes will be "slow and gradual." Meanwhile, the Fed’s rate cuts continue to release dollar liquidity globally. With these opposing forces, global liquidity is more about "rebalancing" rather than tightening entirely.
· The unique value of crypto assets becomes more apparent: Amid this divergence in fiat policies, the "de-sovereign" nature of crypto assets like Bitcoin may be reevaluated. Some viewpoints believe that the excess liquidity spilling over globally will ultimately seek higher-growth outlets, and crypto markets—especially assets like Ethereum that combine technological and settlement functions—may become long-term beneficiaries.

The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is a normal manifestation of economic cycle dislocation, with the greatest impact being the ending of an era of arbitrage. For the crypto market, this means short-term volatility is inevitable, and vigilance against high leverage risks is necessary. But in the long run, the new global liquidity landscape might actually strengthen the position of cryptocurrencies as a new type of globalized asset. The core market game will shift from mere liquidity flooding to deeper scrutiny of the intrinsic value and narrative logic of assets.