#以太坊行情技术解读 Japan Central Bank Meeting Imminent: Crypto Market May Experience Turbulence

Focus: $ETH, $SOL, $BTC

The market has already digested some of the news, but leverage positions still pose risks that have not been fully released. Before the meeting on December 19th, don’t rush to add to your positions blindly.

According to authoritative sources, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo has signaled that—this meeting will seriously evaluate whether to raise interest rates. The market is currently pricing in an over 80% chance of rate hikes, but the real suspense lies in these points:

· Normal expectation: an increase of 0.25 percentage points to 0.75% (a new high since 1995)
· If inflation exceeds expectations: a more aggressive hike of 0.5 percentage points may be implemented
· Alternatively: the central bank might suddenly hold steady, triggering a short squeeze rebound

The blood business of the yen is collapsing

Thirty years of ultra-low interest rate policy has created the world’s largest arbitrage trade—borrowing yen at nearly zero cost and then investing in high-yield assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The data is quite alarming:

· The rate hike in July 2024: Bitcoin plummeted 23% in a single day, with over $20 billion forced liquidations across the entire network on the same day
· Current situation: monitoring data from crypto exchanges shows nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions hanging by a thread, ready to be liquidated

Will history repeat itself this time? The probability is actually lower:

· Information asymmetry change: This time, the market has been digesting rate hike expectations three months in advance, unlike last July when it was caught off guard
· Leverage has shrunk: Data from exchanges shows that open interest has decreased by nearly 40% from its peak in 2024
· Fed support: The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates next year, providing a floor for dollar liquidity

Risk checklist before December 19th

For leveraged traders: reduce contract multiples to below 3x, and reserve 150% margin buffer

For spot holders: set two stop-loss levels for BTC—85,000 and 80,000

For those waiting for the right moment: prepare USDT ammunition; once the rate hike hits, if BTC drops below 82,000, start taking positions gradually

Cryptocurrency vulnerability ranking: BTC at high risk (institutional positions concentrated), ETH at very high risk (DeFi lending pressure greatest), SOL at medium-high risk (Asian funds preference support). Key support levels are 85,000, 2,600, and 180 respectively.

How severe will the impact of a collapse in arbitrage be? Real Vision’s chief analyst once said something very blunt: Yen arbitrage is the largest macro leverage position globally, and closing it could simultaneously impact the stock market, bond market, and crypto market. But this time, the situation is indeed different from last year.