2025-12-13 13:20:34

#美联储降息 Next week, key Federal Reserve data will be released, marking a crucial moment for the crypto market.

On Tuesday at 21:30, Non-Farm Payrolls data; on Thursday at 21:30, CPI inflation data—these two economic indicators directly determine the direction of the dollar and the crypto space next. The Fed relies on these two data points to assess the economic temperature, causing the US dollar index to swing on a knife’s edge, with every market move following these figures.

What’s hidden behind the data?

Non-Farm Payrolls focus on new employment and unemployment rate, serving as a barometer for the Fed’s assessment of economic vitality. Among CPI inflation data, the core CPI annual rate is the most critical, directly influencing expectations for interest rate hikes or cuts.

What does this mean for the crypto space? Two possibilities:

One scenario is the data exceeds expectations—strong employment numbers and high inflation data. The Fed will continue to hold a hawkish stance, strengthening the dollar. During this time, capital withdraws from high-risk assets like BTC and ETH, pressuring crypto prices downward. Looking back to 2022 when inflation spiraled out of control, Bitcoin dropped 40%, a deep lesson.

The other scenario is soft data—slowing employment growth and receding inflation, with expectations of rate cuts rising, leading the dollar to weaken. The crypto market benefits, with funds flowing back, and BTC and ETH rebounding, possibly sparking a market recovery.

One pitfall to avoid: don’t focus solely on the rise or fall of the data itself, but on the magnitude of the surprise. Also beware of "pre-judging entry points + immediately cashing out after data release"—the first wave of volatility is often a fake move; don’t rush to follow the trend.

Macroeconomic data acts like an invisible trader in the crypto market. This week's two key releases largely determine the market rhythm before the end of the year. Mark the release times in advance, manage risks well—staying alive is the key to catching the subsequent gains, which is more valuable than anything.

BTC-0.99%

ETH-0.48%

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CryptoPunster

· 10h ago

Smiling and losing everything in this round, the two battles of Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI will directly decide whether I eat noodles or meat [dog head]. This week, the crypto market will be repeatedly ravaged by macroeconomic data. I am already mentally prepared for a heavy loss. Don’t be fooled by the first wave of feints; that is just the trap set by the whales for the retail investors. Someone always jumps in. When Non-Farm Payrolls are weak, we dream of a rebound; when the data looks good, we quickly cut losses. Anyway, we are swinging between these two extremes. Marking the release time in advance is a good advice; otherwise, by the time I realize it, it will be too late. It is more important to watch your own wallet than to watch the market trends. That is the real survival guide. Living through it will eventually see the dawn, but the prerequisite is to survive this week’s blow.

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gm_or_ngmi

· 12-13 13:50

Here we go again. Every time, these two data points determine life or death. After playing for so long, it still depends on the boss's mood.

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BrokenDAO

· 12-13 13:49

In simple terms, it's the steering wheel betting on the dollar index's direction, with the coin price following as a sacrificial offering... The market always loves this trick of "pricing in advance then reversing to cut losses." It's the same game of "who can predict the unexpected magnitude," honestly no one can master it, and history is the proof. Funds flowing in and out are nothing more than the prisoner's dilemma in game theory; large investors have already calculated the right exit points, but we're always late when looking at the data. The lessons of 2022, are they going to be repeated this year? The system hasn't changed, human nature hasn't changed, so the套路 has to keep cycling. If we're talking about risk management, better to ask ourselves: can we really survive until "the later market"? During this period, how many false signals must we endure? It's essentially about control over macro data; the crypto circle has no voice, can only passively follow... Counter-trend trading is the norm.

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MevHunter

· 12-13 13:38

It's the same story again. When the data comes out, it's just another round of a leek-cutting show. I bet five bucks, and retail investors will be trapped again.

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DegenWhisperer

· 12-13 13:29

On Tuesday and Thursday nights, it's not for sleeping, but for monitoring the market. When the data comes out, the crypto world turns upside down instantly. Without mental preparation, you really can't handle it.

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UnluckyLemur

· 12-13 13:22

Once again, these two data points determine life or death. It's really annoying, I always bet on this.

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Ser_This_Is_A_Casino

· 12-13 13:22

Oh no, this week the Fed is going to mess us up again. Watching data every day is not as good as just pressing the buy or sell button. Really, those two shows, Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI, are what make the price of coins fall from heaven to hell. That wave in 2022 was indeed miserable. It's better to be cautious now, watch the false moves first, then act later. A bunch of people want to buy the dip but all get trapped. I just watch to see whose blood will flow again this week. Honestly, the dollar is just a gamble. I prefer to be honest and hold coins, sleeping peacefully.

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