#美联储降息 The Bank of Japan is about to hold a critical meeting, with the market widely expecting an interest rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75%, reaching a 30-year high. Currently, among the 9 members of the decision-making committee, there are no publicly expressed dissenting voices, and more than half are expected to vote in favor. Governor Ueda also leans towards supporting this policy adjustment.

This move could have a far greater impact on the crypto market than similar policies by the Federal Reserve. The fundamental reason is that for over thirty years, the Japanese yen interest rate has been at an ultra-low level, turning it into a global "arbitrage tool." Investors have extensively borrowed yen to invest in US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and even digital assets, forming massive yen arbitrage positions. Once Japan begins tightening monetary policy and borrowing costs rise, a wave of margin calls on these high-risk positions could follow.

The yen’s appreciation in July already served as a warning—Bitcoin and gold both declined simultaneously, with risk aversion immediately dominating the market rhythm. This time, the difference is that the central bank’s formal tightening signals are set, and market reactions are likely to be even more intense.

Three key points of advice for retail investors. First, closely monitor the yen exchange rate. If the yen significantly appreciates after the rate hike announcement, short-term selling pressure on global stocks and cryptocurrencies could follow. Second, beware of cross-market linkages leading to declines. Today’s highly interconnected global financial markets mean that extreme volatility in the Japanese stock market could quickly spread risk aversion to the crypto space. Don’t overly trust Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven. Third, maintain patience and discipline. Such macro shocks often clear out leveraged heavy positions. The primary goal for ordinary investors should be to preserve capital, not rush to buy the dip. Once the market fully digests the policy impact and uncertainty gradually dissipates, true investment opportunities will emerge.

The market is now holding its breath, awaiting the final announcement. What’s your prediction—will this rate hike be the tipping point that crushes risk assets, or a new starting point after all negatives are priced in? Feel free to share your views in the comments. $BTC