#市场触底了吗？ The market continues to pull back—risk or opportunity? Sharing my strategic thoughts!

Recently, the market can be described with one word: "stalemate." Bitcoin repeatedly hovers around $89,000, while Ethereum struggles near the $3,100 mark. Watching the account figures fluctuate, I know many friends are asking themselves: Is the market over? Is now the time to buy the dip?

As a trader who has experienced several cycles, I want to share some of my observations and reflections.

1. Where is the market currently?

From a technical perspective, the overall market is indeed under pressure. Last week, Bitcoin failed to break through a key descending trendline, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $94,253, forming a strong resistance zone. Currently, its daily RSI is at 43, in the bearish zone.

Ethereum's situation is similar; it has failed multiple times to close above the 50-day exponential moving average at $3,280. It is now testing the support at $3,017. Ripple (XRP) is hovering near a critical support level at $1.96, in a precarious position.

This broad pressure reflects the current cautious sentiment in the market clearly.

2. Is this a "market correction" or a "trend reversal"?

This is the core question for whether to buy the dip. I personally lean towards believing this is more likely a healthy "market correction."

Based on experience, corrections in a bull market typically have the following characteristics, which align quite well with the current situation:

· Limited in scope: Usually a pullback of about 10-30% from recent highs, creating room for healthier subsequent gains.
· Short duration: Lasting days to weeks, then gradually stabilizing.
· Common causes: Profit-taking after sharp rises, macroeconomic data (like CPI, interest rates), and regulatory news fluctuations.

Looking back at history, such corrections are common. For example, in January 2021, Bitcoin hit a high of $42,000, then corrected by 25% to around $30,000, before resuming its upward trend. The current volatility, in the context of a long bull cycle, may just be a minor episode.

3. My response strategy and layout thoughts

In the face of uncertainty, my core strategy is "not guessing the absolute bottom, but aiming for advantageous levels," along with proper position management.

1. Watch key levels and deploy gradually
I will never try to buy the bottom all at once. My approach is:

· For Bitcoin, focus on the support around $85,569 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement). If the market shows signs of stabilization in this zone, I will consider gradually building a spot position.
· For Ethereum, $3,017 is a recent critical support/resistance level. Holding above it could signal a better outlook; breaking below would point to the next support around $2,749. I will decide my actions based on how it performs here.

2. Learn from "smart money" tactics
Besides monitoring the overall market, I dedicate part of my effort to seeking "alpha" (excess returns) opportunities. I find some strategies from experienced traders quite insightful:

· Pre-position narrative tokens: Identify tokens related to emerging narratives like AI and DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure) and accumulate gradually before they gain widespread attention.
· Use on-chain data: Track whale wallets, exchange inflows and outflows, and other on-chain signals, which can sometimes reflect market sentiment changes earlier than price movements.

3. Always manage positions and hedge
This is fundamental to survival. My principles are:

· Control your position size: Even when optimistic, avoid going all-in at once. Always keep a portion in stablecoins (like USDT) so you can act when opportunities arise.
· Consider hedging: When market volatility intensifies or shows signs of overheating, use options and other tools to hedge major holdings (like BTC) to protect profits.

Maintain patience and vigilance

The market cycles between fear and greed. The current pullback may be releasing risk but also brewing the next opportunity.

In my view, now may not be the time to blindly go all-in on "buying the dip," but it is definitely the time to stay focused, do in-depth research, and develop detailed plans. Successful investing often requires contrarian thinking—being greedy when others are fearful—but this "greed" must be based on thorough preparation and strict discipline.

Let’s stay patient and cautious together. The market will ultimately give us an answer.

What are your thoughts on the current market position? What strategies have you adopted? Feel free to share and discuss in the comments.