#以太坊行情技术解读 The stablecoin sector and the CRCL project, right now the market's outlook is really a 50/50.

What are the optimists betting on? They believe that stablecoins will eventually become the hub between on-chain world and real-world finance, a piece of infrastructure-level stuff. As for whether it's profitable now or enough to support the stock price, that's not the most critical point for them.

The pessimists' reasoning also holds water: the profit model is too single, competition will inevitably intensify, and old rivals like Tether are still around. And frankly, the so-called "compliance advantage" may not be a permanent moat. The compliance you achieve, big institutions will eventually be able to handle too. Once compliance shifts from a scarce skill to an industry standard, its boost to valuation diminishes significantly.

My personal view is this:

If you truly believe in the long-term prospects of the entire crypto industry, from a logical perspective, projects like CRCL are worth participating in. But the only premise is—**the price must be reasonable**.

Starting from over $100 or $200, some people in the market are wildly bullish, acting as if "missing out means missing the entire era." And what’s the result? Less than a month after opening, the stock price surged to nearly $300. The market cap of a stablecoin company actually surpasses the scale of the stablecoins it supports—this is clearly no longer driven by fundamentals, but by emotion and imagination pricing things recklessly.

Recently, it dropped to around $64. A short-term bullish rebound after a dip is normal from a technical perspective. But trying to hit new highs again in the short term? I think that’s unlikely. It will take time to digest this round of bubble.

Even with the most optimistic expectations, returning to previous highs or even breaking new highs, smoothly, would take 2 to 3 years. And that’s assuming the crypto industry develops smoothly, with new narratives to support it.

Investing is basically not a faith contest but about finding a balance between price, rhythm, and expectations. Believing in an industry or a particular asset doesn’t mean you need to buy at any price point.

So at this moment, I don’t see a reason to rush into buying.

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