2025-12-15 16:20:40

Thoughts on Recent BTC Trends

The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy could become an important short-term market trigger. Based on the current technical and macro environment, the date of December 19th is worth paying attention to—many analysts believe this wave of adjustment could push BTC below $70,000.

In the medium term, after experiencing this cycle, the market may test the historical lows of 2017. If it indeed drops to that level, subsequent recovery could take a considerable amount of time to digest—this is not a matter of months, but likely a multi-decade adjustment cycle.

What does this mean? Next year could present a relatively rare opportunity window. Buying the dip in BTC around the $3,000 to $4,000 range is uncommon in history. Of course, whether this extreme scenario will truly occur remains uncertain, but the risk-reward ratio is definitely worth considering.

Based on this judgment, some traders are considering increasing short positions, waiting for this potential opportunity to arrive. The market's uncertainty precisely creates such possibilities.

BTC1,54%

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LayerZeroHero

· 2025-12-18 07:11

A few thousand yuan to bottom out BTC? Dream on haha, this analysis is a bit too optimistic. Wait, will the Bank of Japan really be so aggressive on the 19th? Feels a bit exaggerated. Short positions definitely need to be considered, but I wouldn't dare to buy at that level if it really drops there. I've heard this kind of rhetoric in every bear market, but the key is when to run. Sounds good, but it's actually all gambler mentality—whoever hits the timing right is the smart one. Decades of recovery cycle? Then how long do we have to live to see a doubling? LOL

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BlockchainFries

· 2025-12-16 11:11

Here we go again with the stories, decades-long cycles? Wake up, everyone. --- Thousands of dollars to bottom out? Dream on, history never repeats. --- December 19th? That date is randomly made up, haha. --- The Bank of Japan raises interest rates and it’s about to collapse? That’s just nonsense. --- All the short positions are already laid out, just waiting to harvest the chives. --- If it really drops to 2017 levels, I’ll eat dirt upside down. --- Another "rare opportunity," tired of hearing this phrase. --- Risk-reward ratio? No matter how you calculate it, the risk is high and the reward is small. --- Talking about macro environment so professionally, isn’t that just gambling? --- Taking analyst words at half-truths is already pretty foolish.

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LiquidityNinja

· 2025-12-15 16:52

Decades of cycle adjustments? Bro, your expectations are way too wild haha --- Another all-time low, and it's thousands of dollars... Sounds good, but how come no one missed the bottom? --- On December 19th, I've heard this so many times, every time they say it's the key... --- Short positions piling up, if it can't fall further, it's a bloodbath loss, is your mental preparation enough? --- I believe in the opportunity window, but the problem is whether we can survive until then and wait for the bottom --- BTC worth thousands of dollars? I don't believe it, unless it's truly doomsday --- Everyone's waiting for the bottom, but the bottom was already there, this logical cycle is really final --- Can Japan's interest rate hike break through 70,000 so fiercely? Feels like an over-interpretation again --- Decades? Come on, who in the crypto world can hold that long? They'll starve to death --- Such extreme expectations happen every year, but I'm still dollar-cost averaging anyway

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RektButStillHere

· 2025-12-15 16:51

Are you talking about extreme scenarios again? Every cycle someone says this time is different, and what’s the result... Decades of adjustments, I remain calm watching it, anyway I’ve been numb for a long time. Buying thousands of yuan at the bottom? Bro, your assumption is a bit off, wake up. 12.19? Uh... let’s first see if the Bank of Japan will really pull off something like that. My strategy is actually very simple, go all-in on the short side, anyway, bouncing back and forth is routine. I’ve seen this kind of analysis too many times, each time full of confidence, each time slapped in the face. But just in case it really drops to that price... I will definitely go all in, just to take a gamble.

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SignatureLiquidator

· 2025-12-15 16:51

Is it the same routine again? The dream of bottoming out Bitcoin for a few thousand yuan hasn't woken up yet. Decades-long cycle? Ha, this time I'll have to wait until my grandchildren's generation, right? December 19th? I'll just watch, I’ve already fully shorted my position anyway. The 2017 low... sounds fierce, but I dare say not many people would dare to buy in when it really drops. Risk-reward ratio? That's the phrase I hear the most, and also the one I lose the most on. Next year's opportunity window? It's more realistic to say that next year's liquidation window is even closer.

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TestnetFreeloader

· 2025-12-15 16:50

Decades-long adjustment cycle? Bro, are you writing science fiction or what? Another several thousand dollars to buy the dip, speaking so confidently, do you really dare to go all-in when the time comes? Japanese yen is causing trouble again, always the same story. I've heard the December 19 meme too many times, but what happened? Waiting for opportunities next year is not as good as taking action today.

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DEXRobinHood

· 2025-12-15 16:44

Decades level? Buddy, how many years of hardship do you need to endure? If I could wait for a chance to make thousands of dollars, I would have retired long ago.

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ProbablyNothing

· 2025-12-15 16:35

A few thousand yuan to buy the dip in Bitcoin? Haha, dream on, this wave won't fall that far --- December 19? I think, this analyst always has a "worthy of attention," next time I’ll just turn it off --- Decades-long repair cycle... then I might not be able to wait, just keep dollar-cost averaging --- Short position? Really daring to play, just afraid the tragedy of 2017 repeats itself --- If you ask me, this kind of extreme scenario is just to scare newcomers, when it really happens, you have to buy the dip --- The Bank of Japan raising interest rates... it feels like Bitcoin has already digested that, what kind of news do you think this is? --- Risk-reward ratio? Sounds good, but I think the bigger risk is getting trapped

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