Looking at the recent K-line chart, I noticed an interesting phenomenon—the current downward trend closely resembles the pattern from the 2021 market cycle. It started with a waterfall-like plunge, followed by a rebound, and then continued to decline. Could history really be repeating itself?

My observation approach is as follows: when BTC drops back to the 80,000+ range, we should carefully analyze what on-chain funds are doing, compare the volume of bulls and bears, and use this to judge whether the subsequent movement will follow the same pattern of decline, consolidation, and accumulation as in 2021-2022.

From a technical perspective, I estimate that the bottom of this decline will likely appear in the range of 80,500-81,500. Of course, the exact level depends on how the actual trend unfolds; these numbers are just a reference framework. The movements of whale funds often reflect market sentiment in advance, so monitoring their activity during this period is crucial.