#以太坊行情技术解读 Tokyo's decision on December 19 may trigger a global asset reallocation.

The Bank of Japan's rate hike appears to be a monetary policy tweak on the surface, but it actually concerns the direction of $2 trillion in cross-border arbitrage funds. Over the past decade, the yen has served as a 'cheap pass' supporting the global financial game—hedge funds shorting yen, retail investors following the 'carry trade,' and even institutional investors participating, forming a massive carry trade chain. Once the central bank initiates a rate hike cycle, financing costs will rise sharply, and yen appreciation will also undermine profits denominated in foreign currencies.

How big is the risk? The data tells the story. The slight policy adjustment in July 2024 directly caused an 8% drop in the Nasdaq. Now, with leverage positions deeper and coverage broader, a collective liquidation could hit emerging markets hardest—the 1998 Asian financial crisis is a precedent. The crypto market has already been 'testing waters': Bitcoin fell below $88,000, Ethereum followed downward, $270 million in contracts vanished, and 115,000 traders were liquidated. This selling pressure might just be a prelude.

The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma—rising inflation pressures demand tightening, but accumulating global risks make policymakers hesitant. Markets are accelerating withdrawals amid this uncertainty, with high-risk assets becoming the first escape route. $BTC $ETH 's volatility reflects a possible shift in global liquidity flows. Will the storm arrive on the 19th? The market is already betting.