It is currently 14:10 Central European Time ( Beijing Time 21:10), less than 20 minutes before the highly anticipated non-farm payroll data release tonight (scheduled at 21:30 Beijing Time).

Due to the US government shutdown/delays in data collection in October, tonight (Tuesday, December 16) is a rare "double release day" in non-farm history (simultaneous release of October and November data).
A simple and direct answer: the data has not been released yet; whether it is bullish or bearish depends on whether the data deviates from the following "script."
1. Market expectations cheat sheet
Before the data is released, the main capital pricing logic is: the employment market is cooling but has not collapsed.
• Non-farm employment (NFP) forecast: +40,000 ~ +50,000 people
• Note: This is a very low forecast (compared to previous 150,000-200,000), due to the impact of Boeing strikes and hurricanes.
• Unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate) forecast: 4.4% - 4.5%
• Previous: 4.4%
• Wages (Wages) monthly rate: +0.3%
2. Script scenarios: bullish or bearish? (For cryptocurrencies/US stocks)
Tonight's situation is quite special because the forecast has already been pushed very low.
Script A: Bullish (Bullish) — "Goldilocks"
• Data range: NFP between +30,000 ~ +80,000, with unemployment rate maintained at 4.4% - 4.5%.
• Logic: This data indicates the economy has not completely collapsed (no recession panic), but is weak enough to force the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates.
• Market reactions:
• US dollar (DXY) 📉 falls
• BTC/ETH 📈 rises (in line with easing liquidity expectations)
• US stocks 📈 rise
Script B: Bearish (Bearish) — "Economy Overheating"
• Data range: NFP unexpectedly drops over +100,000 (e.g., +120k).
• Logic: Indicates the US economy is too strong; the Federal Reserve may not only refrain from cutting rates but may even pause rate cuts. This will severely impact current easing expectations.
• Market reactions:
• US dollar (DXY) 🚀 surges (possibly causing yen to plummet, increasing pressure on BoJ)
• BTC/ETH 📉 plummets
• Gold 📉 declines
Script C: Recession Fear (Recession Fear) — "Extremely Bearish"
• Data range: NFP is negative (e.g., -10k), or the unemployment rate surges above 4.6%.
• Logic: Hard landing of the economy. Although this would lead to rate cuts, the market will first price in recession risk through panic selling.
• Market reactions:
• BTC/ETH 📉 initially fall (following a stock market crash), then rebound with Fed rescue expectations.
3. ⚠️ Special Warning: Tonight's "Double Bomb"
Tonight's data is very "noisy":
1. Data revisions: There may be significant revisions to September data (previous +119,000). If the previous figure is sharply revised downward, even if tonight's data is okay, the market will interpret it as bullish (the economy is worse than expected, requiring monetary easing).
2. The Bank of Japan's prelude: If the dollar surges tonight (strong data), USD/JPY may spike. This will put enormous pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates on Friday, increasing the probability of a "black swan" event on Friday.