In the financial situation of December this year, analysts are watching several risks that seem distant but are actually very close.

First, there is a large-scale reversal of yen arbitrage trading. The Bank of Japan has recently raised interest rates to 0.5%, and even higher rates may be on the way. This breaks the previously cheap yen financing environment—large amounts of capital were borrowed in yen at low cost and then invested in U.S. stocks and crypto assets. Now this money has to come home, and the scale is frightening, yet everyone can clearly see the risk approaching, but they still gamble that it won't really happen.

Secondly, there is a systemic threat to commercial real estate in the United States. The era of high interest rates has lasted for a long time, and a wave of loan defaults in commercial properties is accumulating. Once a chain reaction occurs, regional banks will find it difficult to protect themselves.

The third crisis risk comes from global government debt. By 2025, the scale of national debt will have reached a historic high, and the surge in interest payments has sharply increased the debt pressure on some economically fragile countries. The risk of default is no longer a hypothesis, but a reality that is approaching.

These three phenomena are interconnected, outlining a true depiction of the financial environment at the end of 2025.