VanEck Says Bitcoin Bottom Is In: Miner Capitulation Signals Potential Rally Ahead

Leading asset manager VanEck has declared that Bitcoin’s current price weakness may mark the market bottom, pointing to a classic sign of miner capitulation as a contrarian bullish indicator.

In its “Mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report released on December 19, VanEck highlighted a 4% drop in network hashrate—the sharpest since April 2024—as evidence that less efficient miners are shutting down operations. Historically, such periods of hashrate compression have preceded strong 90-day forward returns for BTC, with positive performance 65% of the time since 2014.

Bitcoin is trading around $87,300 as of late December 2025, struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level after a volatile year-end consolidation.

(Sources: X)

Miner Capitulation: A Proven Bullish Contrarian Signal

VanEck’s analysts emphasize that declining hashrate often reflects financial pressure on miners, forcing inefficient operators offline. This “capitulation” phase clears out weak hands, setting the stage for price recovery as surviving miners benefit from reduced competition.

• The latest 4% hashrate decline is linked to ~1.3 GW of capacity going dark, largely in China.
• VanEck estimates ~400,000 mining rigs (e.g., older models) have been powered down.
• Longer hashrate compression periods historically deliver even stronger forward returns.

This pattern has held across multiple cycles, making it a reliable contrary indicator when sentiment is fearful.

Mining Economics Worsen: Breakeven Costs Plunge 35%

Profitability for mid-tier rigs has deteriorated sharply:

• Breakeven electricity price for machines like the Antminer S19 XP fell from ~$0.12/kWh in late 2024 to $0.077/kWh by mid-December 2025—a ~35% drop.
• Only miners with access to ultra-cheap power (e.g., < $0.05/kWh) remain comfortably profitable.

VanEck notes some shuttered capacity may redirect to AI data centers, potentially removing up to 10% of total hashrate long-term—a structural shift favoring higher BTC prices through reduced selling pressure.

Global Mining Landscape: 13 Countries with Government Support

Despite regional shutdowns, VanEck identifies 13 nations actively backing Bitcoin mining through policy or infrastructure—highlighting the industry’s geographic diversification and resilience.

What This Means for Bitcoin Price in Early 2026

VanEck’s view aligns with historical precedents: miner pain often marks cycle bottoms, followed by renewed accumulation and rallies. With Bitcoin down from October highs near $126,000, this capitulation could signal the “shakeout” phase before upward momentum resumes—especially if macro conditions (e.g., Fed easing) improve.

While not guaranteed, the combination of hashrate drop, breakeven compression, and historical 65% positive return rate makes a compelling case for cautious optimism.

In summary, VanEck’s mid-December 2025 analysis frames the recent 4% Bitcoin hashrate decline and 35% drop in miner breakeven costs as signs of capitulation—and a potential price bottom. With ~400,000 rigs offline and historical patterns favoring rallies post-shakeout, the report offers a contrarian bullish take amid year-end weakness. Monitor hashrate recovery and power cost trends for confirmation in the months ahead.